Saturday, April 20, 2013

Western Conference Playoffs Preview - 1st Round

#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Houston Rockets



Pick: Thunder in 5 games

In this match-up, everyone is focusing on it being James Harden vs. his former team, the Oklahoma City Thunder. While he has certainly emerged as a star in this league, that will not be enough to take down the defending Western Conference Champions. Although I don't project this to be a particularly competitive series, it will be entertaining while it lasts because they will be fast paced, high scoring games. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are the second best one-two punch in the NBA (behind Dwyane Wade and Lebron James) and that will be too much for the Rockets to handle. They will probably steal a game at home because they do have the capability of getting hot from three point range, but that won't save them from an early exit from this year's postseason.

#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers


Pick: Spurs in 5 games

The Spurs and Lakers have been going in opposite directions over the past couple of weeks. During the month of April the Spurs only won 3 out of 9 games, whereas the Lakers won 7 of their 8 April competitions. While this shouldn't be ignored, people are overreacting to this small sample size of the season. If the Lakers still had Kobe then I think this series would be much, much closer. However, the fact of the matter is that without Kobe this team just doesn't have enough firepower to win a playoff series. While Dwight Howard and Pao Gasol are probably the best big man combo in the game, outside of those two the Lakers just frankly aren't very good. Although Steve Nash is returning from injury, he has very little chemistry with the team and is the definition of a liability on defense. The Spurs are simply a much deeper team and will therefore be able to take advantage of the Lakers weak bench. Also, when all is said and done, Gregg Popovich is arguably the best coach in the NBA and I would bet on him over Mike D'Antoni any day.

#3 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Golden State Warriors


Pick: Nuggets in 7 games

This could quite possibly be the most entertaining of the first round series. This is a match-up of two of the most high powered offenses in the league which will result in some very high scoring games. The Nuggets are a very interesting team. They lack a true superstar, but have a large collection of very talented players that play very well together. Conventional thought is that it's impossible to win a championship without that go to superstar when the game is on the line, but the Nuggets will be looking to change that mindset this year. Although they don't have that one superstar, they are probably the deepest team in the NBA which will be crucial for their postseason run as they lost Danilo Gallinari to a torn ACL a few weeks ago. It will be up to Wilson Chandler to step up and fill that role, something that I believe he is more than capable of doing. Although Stephen Curry has emerged this year has a star, I don't see the Warriors winning a game in Denver as the Nuggets only lost three games there all season.

#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies


Pick: Grizzlies in 6 games

I feel like a broken record by saying once again that this is going to be a great series. But it really is. These two teams are so closely matched that it was very difficult for me to pick who would win. I want to start by making clear the immense respect I have for the game of Clippers' point gaurd Chris Paul. He is without a doubt the best point guard in the league right now and can do almost anything on both sides of the floor. He's a very pesky defender and easily gets under the skin of his opponents. On offense he knows when to score and when to set up his teammates. I have no doubt that if it was asked of him, he could score 25+ points per game for an entire season. That being said, I think the Grizzlies have the perfect formula to beat the Clippers. Mike Conley has become one of the best defenders in the league, and while he won't be able to stop Chris Paul, he can certainly make his life difficult. With that being the case, other players like Blake Griffin are going to have to step up for the Clippers. The best lineup for them involves both Griffin and DeAndre Jordan being on the floor. This is going to be a big problem at the ends of games because both of them are sub par (and I'm being gentle) free throw shooters. This season Griffin shot 66% from the charity stripe while Jordan shot 39% from the line. At the end of a close game you can be sure that the Grizzlies will put these two on the line and if they can't make them it's going to be hard for the Clippers to win this series.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Eastern Conference Playoffs Preview - 1st Round

#1 Miami Heat vs. #8 Milwaukee Bucks



Pick: Heat in 4 games

Frankly, there isn't much to say about this match-up. The Bucks simply don't have even close to enough talent to even bother the Heat. The only way it would be possible for the Bucks to even make this an entertaining series would be if point guard Brandon Jennings somehow were to catch fire and score 30 a game while shooting over 50% from the field. Considering he has a career field goal percentage of 39%, I think there's a better chance of getting me to watch a soccer game than that happening...that would be funny if you knew how much I despise watching soccer...oh well, not all jokes are winners. Anyway, unless the Bucks get their hands on some of Michael's "secret stuff" from space jam, the Bucks will be heading home early.

#2 New York Knicks vs. #7 Boston Celtics



Pick: Knicks in 7 games

Aw look, they're hugging. This is going to be one of the better series of the first round. The Knicks are undoubtedly the more talented team of the two teams, but the Celtics have a championship pedigree with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett and one of the best coaches in the NBA in Doc Rivers. With the recent emergence of Jeff Green who has averaged over 17 points per game since the start of March, the Celtics are a dangerous team on both sides of the floor. There won't be a single game that the Celtics aren't at least going to make competitive. However, behind the leadership of Carmelo Anthony, who led the league in scoring this year, the Knicks should be able to pull this series out. If for no other reason, then it's because Melo absolutely needs to win this series. Since being drafted in 2003, he has only made it out of the first round of the playoffs one time. For someone who wants to be labeled as a "Superstar", that is completely unacceptable, so even if it means he needs to score 40 a game, Melo has no choice but to win this series.

#3 Indiana Pacers vs. #6 Atlanta Hawks



Pick: Pacers in 6 games

Despite being a 3 seed vs a 6 seed these two teams are pretty closely matched in terms of talent. However, I give the edge to the Pacers for a couple of reasons. First and foremost is the great defense they play night in and night out. They allowed the second fewest points per game (90.7) by forcing opponents to only shoot 42% from the field, good for first in the league. Another reason is because the defensive strength of the Pacers perfectly counters the offensive strength of the Hawks. The two best players on the Hawks are the center Al Horford and power forward Josh Smith. They will be defended by Roy Hibbert and David West respectively, which will give them fits in the paint. This will result in Smith falling into his bad tendency of pulling up for long jumpers, something he is less than average at. Lastly, as I've mentioned Smith and Horford are the team's best players, but they both struggle mightily at the free throw line (52% and 64% respectively). In the playoffs, free throws are critical. If it's a close game at the end, you want to get the ball in the hands of your best players. Unfortunately for the Hawks, if they try to do that, the Pacers will most likely just foul them on purpose and send them to the line which means trouble for Atlanta.

#4 Brooklyn Nets vs #5 Chicago Bulls



Pick: Bulls in 7 games

This is going to be a good series and it is tough one for me to pick. However I think that the Bulls are going to pull this one out because of a combination of good defense and playoff experience. This Brooklyn roster has never been in the playoffs together and that will hurt them when going up against the chemistry of the Bulls. The match-up at every position is interesting and will probably be very entertaining to watch the individual battles that each position will have. Whether it's Joakim Noah against Brook Lopez or Jimmy Butler against Joe Johnson it will certainly be fun to watch these guys battle. That being said I like what the Bulls bring to the table, especially with the offensive punch of Nate Robinson off the bench. Lastly, I fully expect Tom Thibodeau to out-coach P.J. Carlesimo, leading the Bulls past the Nets.

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Elite 8 Predictions

Now that we're passed the Sweet 16 it's time to look ahead at the Elite 8 match-ups. However, before I do that I would like to commend both Syracuse and Marquette. I wasn't too surprised by Syracuse, but it was still very impressive how they were able to completely shut down Indiana's offense, something I just didn't see coming. As for Marquette, they played so hard and with so much physicality that it just took Miami completely out of their game. They pressured the ball so much that Miami had trouble just getting inside the three-point line. Not only was Miami not ready for that pressure, they really put forth a lackluster effort that I was truly disappointed in. Especially since I had them winning it all in my bracket. This was me right after the loss. But seriously, kudos to both Marquette and Syracuse. Now for the Elite 8:

Louisville vs. Duke

(http://www.sportstravel.com/college-basketball/louisville.php)

I'm looking at all four of these games and thinking these are really good match-ups that are gonna be hard to pick a winner for. This game is no exception and I believe we are in for quite a show. This is going to be a shootout between two guys that have been on fire in this tournament: Russ Smith of Louisville and Seth Curry of Duke. Smith has averaged 27 points per game in the tournament while shooting 55% from the field and Curry is scoring 24 points per game on 50% shooting. The difference in this game I believe will be the physicality that I foresee Louisville playing with. They will own Duke on the boards and considering Ryan Kelly's recent struggles ( 6 ppg, 29% shooting in tourney), I just don't see Louisville losing this one.

Ohio State vs. Wichita State

(http://www.beyondusports.com/ohio-state-cut-nets/)

This is an intriguing game and I would not be all that surprised to see Wichita State pull off the upset (and frankly I would like to see it because with my bracket destroyed I'm cheering for the underdog). That being said I don't see it happening. So far in the tournament, Wichita State has yet to see anything like the competition they're going to see from Ohio State. I understand they knocked off the number one seed Gonzaga, but let's be honest, that team was grossly over-seeded. Also, interestingly enough, I think that these close calls Ohio State has had will actually be helpful. Should the game come down to the final minute, I'd put my money on the Buckeyes to seal the deal. This will probably be a better game than most people are expecting, but there won't be an upset in this game.

Florida vs. Michigan

(http://isportsweb.com/2011/11/15/michigan-basketball-trey-burke-leads-wolverines-victory/)

This is the hardest game for me to pick. I grew up a Florida Gators fan and my heart is telling me that they are going to win. Unfortunately the Gators just haven't shown me enough to make me confident that they can win this game. Michigan, on the other hand, has been very impressive thus far in the tournament, led by Trey Burke (above). When the game looked all but over, Burke put the team on his back and propelled the Wolverines to a win over Kansas last night. The key play in the comeback was the three pointer he hit from NBA range with 4 seconds left to send the game into overtime. Too often have I seen the Gators offense become stagnant over its last few games, leading me to believe that Michigan will be able to pull off another victory and move on to the Final Four.

Marquette vs. Syracuse

(http://bostonherald.com/sports/college/college_basketball/2013/03/east_syracuse_tops_indiana_61_50_marquette_next)

This is going to be a great match-up and I can see it going either way. However, I think Marquette has the edge over Syracuse. I love the energy that I've watched the Golden Eagles play with over the past week. They're also coming into this game with a ton of confidence in themselves, not only because they knocked off Miami and have been able to win close games, but also because they have already beaten Syracuse earlier in the season. In my opinion, that's the key right there. They won't be afraid of the Orange. The advantage Syracuse generally has over other teams is that their opponents are generally not used to playing against a 2-3 zone defense. Marquette, however, has plenty of experience playing against it and should be able to find just enough ways to score to win the game.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Sweet 16 Preview

Louisville vs. Oregon:

(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1567293-top-moments-in-louisville-basketball-history)

Entering the tournament there may not have been a hotter team than Louisville, and they've kept that going so far in the tournament, winning their first two games by an average margin of 28.5 points. While the game will certainly be closer than that, the Big East champions will be extending their win streak to 13 games against Oregon. Despite Oregon being criminally under-seeded, they simply don't have the talent to take down Louisville. I could go into detail about specific match-ups in order to justify this pick but there really is no need. If you're not convinced, then take a look at Louisville's schedule this year. They haven't lost since February 9th and all but one of their wins were by double digits. I rest my case. See you in the Elite 8.

Duke vs. Michigan State:

(http://www.phrma.org/news-media/speeches/michael-krzyzewski-2011-phrma-annual-meeting)

Coach K just looks like a rat doesn't he. The resemblance is uncanny. Alright so I'm bias and a hater and whatever else you wanna call me. What can I say? I'm a Terp. Despite that, and how much it pains me to say this, Duke is going to win this match-up. Duke just has too many weapons for Michigan State to handle at this point in time. If it's not Miles Plumlee then its Seth Curry, and if it's not Curry then its Ryan Kelly, and if its not Kelly then it's Rasheed Sulaimon. You get my point. On a side note, keep an eye on this Sulaimon kid. He's gonna be the next big thing for Duke. Anyway, back to my point. If a team can't match up with Duke's talent, then the only way to beat them is to dominate the boards. Duke ranked 213th in the country in rebounding this year, leaving them susceptible to good rebounding teams. Exhibit A is the fact that Maryland (3rd in the nation in rebounding) was able to beat the Blue Devils twice this season (WOOOOOHOOOOOO!!!! Seriously still hype from those games). While Michigan State is no slouch on the boards at 55th in the country, they don't have the rebounding prowess to overcome Duke's talent.

Wichita State vs. La Salle:

(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1581518-wichita-state-vs-la-salle-game-time-tv-schedule-spread-info-and-predictions)

Alright so I'm not gonna sit here and pretend that I watched either of these teams play this season prior to the tournament. I didn't even know where Wichita State was until just now when I googled it so I wouldn't look like a moron. It's in Kansas if any of you are wondering. That being said I'm just gonna go off my gut and what I've seen during the tourney. Wichita State will win this game because...um...I mean...hmm. How bout you just trust me on this one. Next!

Ohio State vs. Arizona:


Ohio State is another one of those teams that has been on a role as of late, winning ten games in a row. Granted, there is a lot controversy over their most recent win against Iowa State and a lot of people don't think they should still be in the tournament. While that definitely should have been called a block instead of a charge, there is no telling how that last minute and a half of the game would have played out had the call been made. Plus, I find it useless to live in a world of "what ifs". Ohio State is playing in the Sweet Sixteen and will be moving on to the Elite 8. The close call against Iowa State will serve as a wake up call, causing the Buckeyes to come into this next game with much more focus. Aaron Craft (pictured above) will be able to use his stellar defense to neutralize Arizona's leading scorer, Mark Lyons, which will make it difficult for the Wildcats' offense to get going. Behind the defense of Craft and scoring of Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State will move on with relative ease.

Kansas vs. Michigan:

(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1448711-michigan-basketball-will-brutal-big-ten-leave-no-1-ranking-elusive)

This was the toughest game for me to pick. However, I'm going to stick with what I put in my bracket which is Michigan advancing past Kansas to the Elite 8. Despite the good record and everything they have done, I honestly haven't been impressed by Kansas this year. Although Michigan had some struggles at the end of the season, I credit that to the gauntlet that was the Big Ten conference this season. Seven teams from that conference made the tournament and four of them remain standing in the Sweet Sixteen. The Big 12 on the other hand was sub par this year. Five teams from that conference made the tournament but Kansas is the only one still standing. Only one other (Iowa State) even made it out of the round of 64. I think Michigan's experience playing against higher caliber teams will propel them to a win over Kansas. This will be a good game though and I am excited to see the showdown between Trey Burke (Michigan) and Ben McLemore (Kansas) as they attempt to one up each other.

Florida vs. Florida Gulf Coast:

(http://jacksonville.com/sports/college/florida-gators/2012-03-07/story/floridas-patric-young-named-sec-scholar-athlete-year)

So...this is a little awkward. Florida Gulf Coast (FGC) is the sweet heart of the tournament. Everyone in the country is getting behind this team that plays an exciting brand of basketball and was the first 15 seed to beat a 2 seed ever. Great stuff. They're going to lose to Florida. Let me rephrase...they're gonna get stomped. I'm sorry to rain on everybody's parade, but during the excitement of watching this team people seem to have forgotten that they were a 15 seed for a reason...they aren't that good. What they've done so far is certainly impressive, but let's not blow it out of proportion. Georgetown has been a disaster in the tournament during recent years, being bounced by double digit seeds in five consecutive tournament appearances. As for San Diego State, they couldn't even win their Mountain West conference. So while the wins are impressive, I don't understand why people all of a sudden are projecting a Final Four appearance. The Gators will have their way with FGC by slowing down the pace of the game and taking care of the ball. FGC thrives off an up and down game and scoring in the fast break. The two ways to start a fast break are off a missed shot or a turnover. Sadly for FGC, the Gators are 8th in the country in field goal percentage and average only 11 turnovers per game which is good for 23rd in the country. By limiting FGC's fast break opportunities, Florida will be advancing to the Elite 8 with ease.

Indiana vs. Syracuse:


(http://www.local10.com/sports/Hoosiers-survive-Wyatt-Temple-to-advance-in-tournament/-/1717082/19448638/-/ht9jp0/-/index.html)

Temple just gave Indiana everything that they could handle. Thanks to some clutch shooting from Victor Oladipo the Hoosiers were able to escape with a six point victory. Now they have to take on the Syracuse Orange to get into the Elite 8. While it won't be easy, I do believe they will be able to pull it off. The duo of Oladipo and Cody Zeller (both pictured above) is one of the best one-two punches in the country and will be too much for Syracuse, who just doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up.

Miami vs. Marquette:

(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1523388-miami-basketball-hurricanes-are-easy-choice-for-no-1-seed-in-ncaa-tournament)

Shane Larkin, Shane Larkin, Shane Larkin. In my opinion, 'nuff said, but I'll elaborate. Miami is going to win this game for a number of reasons. Marquette has barely squeaked by in their first two games of the tournament, winning by a combined total of 3 points. Miami's roster is full of upperclassmen that have a lot of experience and know how to handle adversity. Miami had a wake up call against Illinois and will come in to this game more focused. These reasons are all well and good, but my faith in Miami rides on the shoulders of sophomore point guard Shane Larkin. I have fully jumped on board the Larkin band wagon and you all should too. This kid is a special player that has a bright future in the game of basketball. Sadly, he will be forever underrated because he is only 5'11", but he's going to be special. And remember you heard it here first. This young man has a versatile offensive game, with the ability to attack the basket, shoot the three, and create for others. Just as important is that he has swagger. No, not "swag", whatever the hell that means. He has swagger, which just means that he has that self confidence that he can take and make the big shot when his team needs it. This was on full display with his nasty step back three pointer with one minute left against Illinois to take the lead. Larkin is going to will his team to the Elite 8 and beyond.

Friday, March 8, 2013

Top Five Centers in the NBA

The days of the dominant centers are sadly gone. No longer do we have the joy of watching guys like Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson, or Hakeem "The Dream" Olajuwon. Despite the lack of dominance at the center position, there are still a handful of talented big men. I'm going to rank the top five centers in the league right now. Just so you all know, guys like Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, and Pau Gasol are not eligible for this list because even though they've spent time as centers, they're true position is power forward.

5. Brook Lopez
(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1183277-nba-free-agents-2012-predicting-where-top-players-will-land)

I had a hard time choosing who got this last spot on my list. I finally settled on Brook Lopez, who is actually the leading scorer among centers this season with 18.8 points per game. He has always had a potent offensive game, averaging 17.7 points over his career, but this season he's doing it at his most efficient level since his rookie season (52 FG%). He's also posting a career high in blocks at 2.2 per game. Although he is a great scorer there are other aspects of his game that still need work if he wants to move up this list. He needs to get a little better at passing from the post, as well as increase his rebounding. 7.1 rebounds per game is way too low for a seven footer, showing his lack of effort and desire in that facet of the game. If he can bring that number up to ten per game then we can start to talk about Lopez as a top 3 three center

4. Al Jefferson
(http://www.zimbio.com/photos/Al+Jefferson/Utah+Jazz+v+Dallas+Mavericks/mRshL8TMiGY)

Al Jefferson is one of the few traditional centers left in the NBA. He's an old fashioned, back-to-the-basket post up player that uses fundamental footwork and great touch around the basket to score. Sadly, this skill is undervalued and under appreciated by fans because it's not flashy like Blake Griffin's dunks or Dwight Howard's blocks. Despite flying under the radar he continues to put up great numbers, scoring 17.7 ppg (2nd among centers) and grabbing 9.4 rpg. The Jazz are currently hanging on to the last playoff spot in the West, and if they're going to have any hope of fending off the Lakers it will be on the shoulders of this man.

3. Joakim Noah
(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1169074-chicago-bulls-why-joakim-noah-is-the-biggest-x-factor-in-the-nba-playoffs)

Yeah....try unseeing that picture...but seriously this picture perfectly exemplifies Joakim Noah's value. He plays with immense passion and seemingly infinite energy. As I've said before, when you have a guy that plays that hard, it automatically rubs off on his teammates, giving the entire team a boost. This energy allows him to grab 11.4 rebounds per game while also playing great team defense. He's a great help defender, blocks 2.3 shots per game, and steals the ball 1.3 times per game. While his offensive game isn't extremely refined, he's a better post player than people give him credit for, resulting in 12 points per game. The most impressive aspect of his offensive game, however, is his passing ability. He is the best passing center in the game right now, averaging 4.2 assists per game. Of all the people on this list, Noah probably has the least amount of talent, but makes up for it with a passion rarely seen in sports today.

2. Al Horford
(http://projects.ajc.com/gallery/view/sports/hawks/hawks-2012-homeopener/)

Former teammate of Noah at the University of Florida, Al Horford has quietly become the second best center in the NBA. The Hawks have flown under the radar this season but are currently sitting at 5th in the East despite losing Joe Johnson to the Nets during free agency. Without Johnson, the Hawks' leading scorer since arriving in Atlanta in 2005, Horford has stepped up and taken on a bigger role. The result is that he is having a career year, averaging 17.4 points per game to go along with 10 rebounds per game. He's also shooting 56% from the field and dishing out 3.3 assists per game. His offensive versatility is what makes him the player that he is today. He can score in the post, step out and hit a mid range jumper, or set up teammates with his above average passing ability. While the future of teammate Josh Smith is in question, the Hawks at least have Horford to build around for the future.

1. Dwight Howard
(http://dimemag.com/2012/10/dwight-howard-gets-dissed-again-by-shaq-memphis-adds-star-power/)

I mean....yeah....I guess....whatever.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

NBA's Most Overrated Players

A few days ago I gave you a list of some NBA players that don't get the recognition that they should. Now let's take a look at some players that are given far more credit than they deserve. Once again this is in no particular order.

Rajon Rondo
(http://www.businessinsider.com/rajon-rondo-celtics-heat-2012-10)

Let me start this by saying I actually respect what Rajon Rondo has done in his career. When the Boston Three Party formed (Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce) many people cited the point guard position (aka Rondo) as the team's only weakness that could prevent them from winning a championship. He handled that difficult situation very well and, as we all know, the Celtics did in fact win the title that year. That being said, Rondo has recently drifted into the realm of overrated. The reason he has become overrated is because he is a stat sheet stuffer. He led the league in assists last year and was leading the league in assists this year prior to tearing his ACL. He is also a triple double waiting to happen. However, one's true value cannot be defined solely by statistics. It's rare that someone who leads the league in assists can be called selfish, but it seems like he passes so he can lead the league in assists, rather than passing to help the team. This may seem confusing, so let me explain. Rather than passing and keeping the ball moving in order to keep everyone involved on each possession, he dominates the ball until he finds a pass that will get him the assist. It almost seems like he isn't happy unless he's the one who set up the basket. Then there is Rondo's complete inability to hit a jumper on a consistent basis. This greatly limits his ability to take over a game offensively in the way other point guards can (like Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, etc.). Finally, his notoriously bad attitude has a drastically negative impact on his team. Not only does it mess with team chemistry on the court, but it even drove ex-teammate Ray Allen away (and right into the arms of the defending champion Heat). To exemplify this point, the Celtics were 20-23 prior to Rondo's injury, but since then they are 13-4. 'Nuff said.

Dwight Howard
(http://www.ibtimes.com/los-angeles-lakers-news-will-dwight-howard-re-sign-la-761137)

Rewind a short two years ago. Dwight Howard was easily one of my favorite players in the NBA. I loved how happy he always seemed and respected the intensity with which he played defense. Now fast forward back to today. I cannot stand this man. I lost all respect for him after how poorly he handled his contract situation in Orlando. I could rant and rant about his frustrating inability to make a decision, but I shall resist. Howard is considered to be a superstar in the NBA but I'm here to tell you that he falls short of that label. He may still be the best center in the league, but that isn't saying all that much. He has proven that he does not have the ability to be the number one option on a championship team. This is mainly because of his absolutely horrendous free throw shooting. For those of you wondering, he is only making 48% of his free throws this season. That number makes me cringe. Some people use Shaquille O'Neal as an example to say that someone who is awful at free throws can carry a team. That's all well and good, but Shaq had a much more refined offensive game. Howard is, at best, inconsistent in the post. Until he is able to develop a more consistent post game and hit some foul shots, he will not live up to the high expectations people have of him.

Deron Williams
(http://www.waheedatv.com/brooklyn-nets-very-own-deron-williams-chosen-for-forbes-magazine-30-under-30/)

It turns out that Deron Williams is not the superstar that everyone thought he was when he left Utah to go to the Nets. It has become apparent to me that Williams was indeed the product of the brilliant system Jerry Sloan had in place with the Jazz. Long gone are the days where he averaged almost 20 points per game to go along with double digit assists. His efficiency has dropped dramatically since he came to the Nets and is currently shooting 42% from the field. The most disappointing aspect of Williams game, however, is the fact that he is only averaging 7.5 assists per game which is the lowest total since his rookie season. This is surprising because there is plenty of talent on the Nets' roster. So although Williams is certainly talented, he is the not a superstar that can carry a team like many people thought. On a side note, Jerry Sloan deserves way more credit for how great of a coach he was.

DeMarcus Cousins
(http://www.celticslife.com/2012/01/todays-poll-should-celtics-pursue.html)

I'm tired of hearing people talk about how great DeMarcus Cousins could be if he were to get his head on straight. He is almost through his third year in the NBA but still is having the same character issues that were a concern when he was originally drafted. He consistently puts forth lackluster effort and gets frustrated very easily often resulting in him getting into foul trouble. He has also been suspended two separate times this season for behavioral issues. If you watch the Kings play (not that anyone would really want to) you can see him complain to the refs on a regular basis, further highlighting his immaturity. He may have an immense amount of talent, but that can only take you so far. Despite all that talent, he shoots under 45% from the field which is way too low for a big man in the NBA. Sure he's still young and there's still hope that he could mature at some point. But until that time I don't want to hear any more talk about him being one of the best centers in the league. And don't worry, you can trust my analysis of Cousins because I'm not at all bitter that I used a 3rd round pick on him in my fantasy league.....okay, maybe just a little.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Alex Smith the Answer for the Chiefs?

(http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/49ers-QB-Smith-on-IR-likely-ending-his-tenure-3195411.php)

Let's just be honest for a minute, Alex Smith got hosed this season. After having easily the best year of his career, Smith had to sit out a game due to a concussion. The unwritten rule is that a player shouldn't be able to lose his job because of an injury. Unfortunately, that is not the reality. Colin Kaepernick came in and played at a very high level, causing Jim Harbaugh to name him the starter for the remainder of the season as the team made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Smith obviously has no desire to be a backup so he wanted to get out of San Francisco. As a result the 49ers traded him to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Now a moment of silence for the death of Smith's Super Bowl dreams.

But seriously, now that the trade has happened it's time to determine whether or not we think this move will make the lowly Chiefs a serious playoff contender. In order to make this determination, let's first take a look at what it takes for Smith to be successful.

It's fair to say that Smith was a sub par quarterback until the past two seasons. The biggest reason for his more recent success is that he was no longer asked to carry a team. His job over the past two years has been to be a game manager that doesn't make many mistakes, while the team is carried by a strong defense and potent running game. San Francisco ranked 2nd in scoring defense each of the past two years, while concurrently ranking in the top 8 in rushing. With less responsibility on him, Smith was able to flourish and finish 7th in total QBR last year.

Now let's take a look at the Chiefs and see if the circumstances are similar enough for Smith to continue his success. The defense in Kansas City is...how do I say this nicely...dreadful. Last season they ranked 25th in scoring defense which clearly leaves a lot to be desired on that side of the ball. The rushing attack is a completely different story. Led by Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs had the fifth ranked rushing attack in the league last season. So although the defense certainly needs improvement, with the help of a strong rushing game it would appear that Smith does have an opportunity to continue his high level of play.

Before we make a final determination we must also take a look at another person new in Kansas City, the coach Andy Reid. Reid is notorious for being a pass happy play caller that under-utilizes talented running backs. Despite having LeSean McCoy with the Eagles, Reid chose to run a pass heavy offense regardless of who was lined up under center. Michael Vick and Nick Foles both played games for the Eagles last season and both of them threw the ball 38 times per game. On the other hand, Smith was only asked to throw the ball 26 times per game.

As I stated before, Smith is a better quarterback when he doesn't have to do too much. Historically, Reid asks a lot of his QBs and refuses to make adjustments based on his team's personnel. With that being the case, I just don't see Smith having a whole lot of success with the Chiefs. There is definitely a lot of potential here, but if Reid is unwilling to alter his philosophy, I don't see Smith being any better than a mediocre quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs.