Saturday, January 11, 2014

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

After an extremely busy semester I am now back on the blogosphere. Let's get back into the swing of things by picking the four NFL playoff games happening his weekend.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints


This has become a relatively familiar match-up over the past few years ever since the Seahawks upset the Saints in 2011. This time around, however, it is New Orleans who is the underdog. This contest pits second year quarterback Russel Wilson (right side of pic above) against storied veteran Drew Brees (left side of pic above) who already has a Super Bowl ring in his collection. The Saints boast a much improved defense this year to go along with a deadly offensive attack. The Seahawks, however, have arguably the best defense in the league anchored by some of the most physical cornerbacks you will ever see play. The offense for Seattle, while not stellar, is certainly not to be taken for granted as Wilson effectively leads the read option offense with the help of running back Marshawn Lynch. The key to picking this game is how much of a different team the Saints are on the road than they are at home. Brees, while still above average, posts sub par numbers on the road compared to his home game stats. The Seahawks also have one of the largest home field advantages in the entire NFL which will not make the Saints job any easier. This will probably be a defensive battle with both teams scoring in the low twenties in what will be a very close contest.
Pick: Seattle 23-20

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts


If there is one thing I have learned to do in my time watching football it is not to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, especially in their first playoff game of the season. Only two times in Brady's playoff career has he lost in his first playoff game. The Colts, on the other hand are coming off of an impressive comeback win against the Kansas City Chiefs last week in the Wild Card round which has a lot of people jumping on the Colts bandwagon. I don't mean to say that the comeback wasn't impressive, but people seem to forget why the comeback was necessary...they fell behind by a lot. You simply cannot do that against New England and expect to win. While there is no doubt that Andrew Luck will be one of the best QBs in the league very soon, he still tends to throw too many interceptions, a mistake you don't want to make against the Patriots. Additionally, the Colts lack a consistent running game which often results in a one dimensional game plan for Indianapolis, further playing into the Patriots hands. That being said I do see it being a close match-up that will probably come down to a game winning drive by one of these two quarterbacks.
Pick: Patriots 34-31

Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers


This was the most difficult game for me to pick as I kept going back and forth in my head. However I have to follow my gut, even if it is being influenced by how Colin Kaepernick broke my heart in fantasy football this season. These two teams are almost identical. They are both defensive minded clubs that have mobile quarterbacks and a solid running game. This will undoubtedly be a low scoring contest, much like their regular season match-up that ended with the Panthers winning 10-9. Kaepernick has much more playoff experience than Panthers QB Cam Newton which does give an advantage to the 49ers. However, in a defensive game like this there probably won't be much of a difference between the two QBs overall performances. Both will probably struggle to move the ball down the field for most of the day, which interestingly enough plays into Carolinas hands. The 49ers have gone as Kaepernick has gone this season. In their wins he boasts a passer rating of 107.6, whereas he has an abysmal passer rating of 45.9 in losses. Newton's passer rating on the other hand is less than 20 points higher in wins than in losses, with ratings of 94.2 and 74.9 respectively. If Kaepernick struggles, which I believe he will against the stout Panthers defense, it will be very difficult for the 49ers to win.
Pick: Panthers 16-13

Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers


There is no doubt in my mind that the Broncos are the better overall team in this match-up. However I find myself not feeling too good about picking them to win. Not only does Peyton Manning tend to struggle in the playoffs, those struggles are amplified when he plays against the Chargers. Over the years it seems like Philip Rivers and the Chargers have had Peyton Manning's number, which means that they will not go into this game intimidated by his record breaking season Manning just had. Just a few weeks ago in a regular season contest between these two teams the chargers came out victorious. San Diego just barely squeaked into the playoffs, needing to win each of its last few games, so they have been in playoff mode for a while now. Watching the playoffs over the years it is apparent that a team that caught fire late in the season cannot be overlooked. This will definitely be a shootout between Manning and Rivers and the game will most likely come down to which quarterback can avoid the big mistake.
Pick: Chargers 38-35
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Thursday, September 19, 2013

NFL Story Lines Going Into Week 3

1. Which 0-2 Team is Most Likely to Bounce Back and Make the Playoffs?

Of the eight teams that find themselves at 0-2, I'm giving the Redskins the best chance to come back and sneak into the playoffs. The primary reason for this is because of how weak the NFC East is this season. The Cowboys are an accident waiting to happen so I just can't believe that they will keep it together long enough to make the postseason. The Giants, another team currently 0-2, have absolutely no running game to go along with a sub par defense which means they have to rely heavily on the arm of Eli Manning. The result of this is that he has thrown six interceptions in just the first two games. Arguably the best team in the division is the Eagles. They have proven to have an electric offense (which I will be discussing more in depth later) that has the ability to put a lot of points up on the board in a hurry. Their defense, however, is positively abysmal which puts a lot of pressure on the offense to score a lot. Another thing to keep in mind is that if history has shown us anything, it's that it's only a matter of time until Mike Vick gets hurt. Essentially, all other teams in that division have major flaws and the Eagles and Cowboys are tied for first each with a record of 1-1, putting the Skins only a game back of first. Additionally, I'm confident that RGIII is going to get better and better as the season continues, giving them a fairly good chance of making it to the postseason.

2. Which 2-0 is Most Likely to Miss the Playoffs?

Let me preface this by stating that I'm not saying the Chiefs will not make the playoffs this year, simply that out of all the 2-0 teams I think they are the most likely to miss out. First of all, I have absolutely no doubt that the Broncos are going to win that division, so if the Chiefs make the postseason it will have to be as a wildcard. My primary reason, however, for choosing Kansas City is just because I haven't seen enough from this team to buy in. In their first game they beat the Jaguars...there are no words to accurately describe quite how bad the Jags are this season...but anyway, the point is beating Jacksonville doesn't exactly prove that you're a good team. Then they went on to play and beat the Cowboys, one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. It is also important to note that Andy Reid, as the previous coach of the Eagles, knows the Cowboys like the back of his hand, giving them an advantage. While I have no doubt that the Chiefs are greatly improved from last year, I will have to see a bit more before I endorse them as a playoff team.

3. Eagles Prolific Offense

One of the biggest questions coming into this season was what would the Eagles offense be like under the direction of new coach Chip Kelly. Well that question has been asked and answered even after just two weeks. The answer is that the Eagles have a prolific offense that quickly marches down the field big chunks at a time. Their offense is a must see for any football fan that appreciates that side of the ball, as one can't help but compare this unit to the 2000 Rams, also known as the Greatest Show on Turf. To put into perspective how high-powered this offense is, take into consideration that they currently have the leading receiver and leading rusher in the league (DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy respectively). It's rare to see one team with leaders in those two categories. To take it a step farther, Jackson is on pace to obliterate the single season record for receiving yards that Calvin Johnson set a year ago by over 400 yards. While the defense certainly needs some work, this offense is simply fun to watch and will give fans a show week in and week out.

4. Trent Richardson Traded to the Colts

Just yesterday the Cleveland Browns made the most peculiar decision of the season. Despite being competitive in each of their first two games, it appears that they have thrown in the towel for this season as they traded away Trent Richardson, their best player, for a first round pick in next year's draft. So now there is literally no reason to pay attention to the Browns this year as they are essentially and automatic win for anyone who plays them. Now on to the part of this trade that actually has an impact on this season. The colts have been looking for a good running back ever since they got rid of Edgerrin James after the 2005 season. They finally have that in what seems like a match made in heaven between Richardson and Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. Since drafting Luck with the first overall pick last year the Colts offense has been more than serviceable, but has been missing one crucial part to being a consistent offense. That missing part was a consistent running game. With the addition of Richardson, I think we are going to see a much more balanced offense that gives defenses a lot of trouble moving forward. I recognize that Richardson has not exactly been a stellar player, averaging only 3.5 yards per carry during his short career, but in his defense he was on the Browns. He was the only offensive player on that team that defenses were worried about. I think we are going to see a major boost in productivity for him, as well as a boost in efficiency for Luck. Watch out league, the Colts are not to be trifled with.
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Tuesday, September 10, 2013

NFL Week 1 Recap

The NFL season is back which means I'm back as well. With Week 1 of the season in the books I'm going to take a look at a couple of things that stood out to me this weekend. Before we jump right into business I would like to warm everyone up with a joke: ...Mark Sanchez

Now that we have all had a good laugh let's see what we can take away from this week:

1. 2nd Year QBs Lived Up to Last Year's Hype


Last year had the best collection of first-year quarterbacks that I've seen in my entire lifetime. For clarification, I'm using the term first-year, rather than rookie, because Colin Kaepernick (above, left) was not a rookie last season, but he did become a starting quarterback for the first time. Andrew Luck (above, left-center), Russell Wilson (above, right-center), and Robert Griffin III (above, right) were all rookies last season and took the NFL by storm. What was so unique about all these young QBs was their ability to run a read-option offense due to their extreme athletic ability. While Luck is more of a traditional QB, he is not lacking in the athleticism department which allows him to make plays with his feet just like we all saw this weekend on his game winning touchdown run. But, I'm getting ahead of myself here. When rookies burst onto the scene the same question always follows: are they going to be able to sustain this success? This is a legitimate question for a couple reasons. First and foremost is the classic "Sophomore Slump". This is the common phrase to describe a player that had a great rookie year but then followed it up with a disappointing season. This is most often due to the fact that opposing teams have much more game tape of the player and can better find weaknesses in their games. However, with these particular quarterbacks there was even more reason to be worried about a decline in production. As I mentioned before Griffin, Wilson, and Kaepernick all run a read-option offense which, in the simplest terms, means that the offense relies heavily on their ability to run with the football. Last season was the first time this offense was heavily used in the NFL which means defensive coordinators did not have much experience trying to stop it. With an entire off-season to come up with a game plan to stop this offense, some people expected these QBs to be much less effective. Those people were dead wrong. This section is already longer than I intended it to be and I'm sure you're tired of reading so much on one topic, so I will wrap this up pretty quickly. Kaepernick, Luck, and Wilson finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively in passer rating this week, and more importantly all won their games. While RGIII did not have as pretty a game as the other three, that was to be expected. The man tore his ACL in January and did not get a single snap in a preseason game, so there was bound to be some rust. Watch out football world, these young QBs are here to stay.

2. The Broncos Made the Right Choice

Although there really was not much doubt about this before, Peyton Manning's Week 1 performance simply reaffirmed that Denver made the right call when they decided to bring in Manning a year ago and trade away Tim Tebow. For anyone who doubts this (not that anyone does) let's just take a quick look at what they each did this week. Manning threw for an NFL record tying seven touchdowns, and Tebow is unemployed, praying to Jesus that he could throw like Manning. Just to be clear I really am not trying to be mean to Tebow. Anyone who knows me knows that I firmly believe that he could help a team more than oh, I don't know, Brandon Weeden or Christian Ponder (both threw three interceptions this week). That being said Manning is arguably the best QB in the league right now and Denver has a lot to be excited about this year.

3. Ozzie Newsome Did Not Have Some Secret Master Plan


This off-season was one full of change for the Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens, starting with the retirement of all-time great linebacker Ray Lewis. Lewis was not the only player to leave town, however, as the Ravens got rid of a lot of starters from their Super Bowl team. All summer as this was going on everyone kept claiming that Ozzie Newsome, the general manager, must have some ingenious plan and we just do not see it right now. Well, I am here to say that does not look like the case. Many may say that I am overreacting to their 49-27 loss to the Broncos, but I can assure you I am not. This new look Ravens team just simply does not have the talent to even make a run at a repeat championship. After letting Ed Reed leave to go to the Houston Texans, the secondary of the Ravens looked flat out lost for most of their Week 1 game. I know Peyton Manning is a phenomenal quarterback, but even he had never thrown seven touchdowns in one game before. Additionally, the normally hard hitting Ravens defense could not seem to make a tackle the entire game. On the offensive side of the ball Newsome also made a bold decision to trade Anquan Boldin to the 49ers. Boldin was a humongous part of their Super Bowl run last year and was always Joe Flacco's go-to guy when they absolutely needed a catch. Without that safety net in their offense, they really had trouble moving the chains last Thursday. As if that was not bad enough, Boldin added salt to the wound by tallying a league high 208 receiving yards in his 49ers debut. While it is still quite early, it looks like Newsome's "masterplan" left the Ravens with a lot of weaknesses that they are going to need to fix if they want a chance to defend their title.

4. Reggie Bush is Going to Have a Monster Year


It may have taken a while, but Reggie Bush has finally started to live up to the hype. He left USC as one of the best college running backs of all time, but could never really get it to work in the NFL. Bush spent his last two seasons with the Miami Dolphins and he proved that he could be a serviceable running back in the league by averaging over 1,000 rushing yards per season and scoring 6 rushing touchdowns each year. However, he is primed to explode because he is now in the perfect system for his skill set. Bush has always been great a catching the football out of the backfield and now that he has a solid running ability he is truly the definition of a dual threat back. Now that he is in Detroit, his skill set will be utilized to his maximum potential because Matthew Stafford loves to dump it off to his running backs when he is unable to work it down the field. Another positive for Bush is that defenses this year are going to be so focused on dealing with wide receiver Calvin Johnson that he should have plenty of openings to break off big plays. In his first game with the Lions, Bush ran for 93 yards to go along with 101 receiving yards and a touchdown. I think we can expect to see huge numbers like this throughout the season, so if you get the chance, make sure to watch a Detroit Lions game because you are sure to witness some amazing plays.
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Thursday, June 6, 2013

NBA Finals Preview


With the NBA Finals upon us it's time to take a look at the match-up that will determine this year's NBA Champion. This year we will see the San Antonio Spurs, arguably the best team of this century, attempt to win its fifth Championship since 1999. With Tim Duncan contemplating retirement at the age of 37, he hopes to be able to go out on top. In order to achieve this goal, they will have to dethrone The King and his reigning NBA Champion Miami Heat. The Heat struggled to get past the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals in an intense seven game series. The Spurs, on the other hand, swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals with relative ease. This is a very tough series to call so even now I'm having trouble deciding who I think is going to win. In order to clear this up I'm going to break down each match-up in order to figure out who has an advantage.


Mario Chalmers vs. Tony Parker: Advantage Spurs
This is a no brainer. Nothing against Chalmers, but Parker is hands down one of the best point guards in the NBA (if not the best). There really isn't much else to say here. As I'm sitting here trying to figure out what else to say on the topic nothing is coming to me. So I'm just going to type another line or two so at a glance it seems like I at least did some analysis. Almost there. Getting closer. Just want to get to the end of this line. Close enough.

Dwyane Wade vs. Danny Green: Advantage Heat
There is no doubt that Wade has been struggling this postseason, primarily due to the bone bruise in his knee that he is suffering through. While Green is a fine player, even a hampered D-Wade has the advantage in this match-up. However, if the Heat want to win this series Wade is going to need to do more than win this match-up. He has to play the way he did in Game 7 against the Pacers where he scored 21 points and grabbed 9 rebounds.

LeBron James vs. Kawhi Leonard: Advantage Heat...duh
This is not meant to be a slight on Leonard. I have the utmost respect for him as a player and believe that he is on the verge of bursting into stardom in the NBA. After a very good regular season he has stepped his game up even more during this postseason, especially in terms of rebounding and efficiency. He has averaged 8 rebounds per game through the first three rounds which will be crucial for him to continue in the Finals as rebounding is the biggest weakness of Miami. He has also been shooting 57% from the field, so when he gets an open shot you can bank on it going in. All that being said, there's a reason James is called The King. He is the best player in the NBA and while Leonard's tenacious defense may make things more difficult for James, he will find a way to dominate in his usual fashion.

Udonis Haslem vs. Tim Duncan: Advantage Spurs
My boy Timmy D is the best power forward of all time. Nuff' said.

Chris Bosh vs. Tiago Splitter: Advantage Heat
Now, I know it probably seems like it would have been better to do an analysis between the match-up of Bosh against Duncan and I was prepared to do that at first. But after thinking about it I realized that these will be the most likely match-ups in an attempt to allow Bosh and Duncan to focus more on the offensive end. While these two will surely be up against each other at some points, I see that being somewhat limited. That being said, Bosh has an obvious advantage. While Splitter is a fine defender, he is not nearly quick enough to deal with Bosh. A lot of people have been very quick to criticize Bosh, and deservedly so, as he had an awful series against the Pacers. Many people expect his struggles to continue in this series, giving the Spurs a big advantage. Personally, I think we are going to see the Bosh of old in this series. Indiana has been his kryptonite all year. In three regular season match-ups he totaled only 10 rebounds against the Pacers, so his lack of rebounding wasn't much of a surprise to me. Also, his scoring troubles stemmed from the fact that his weakness is dealing with bigger and stronger defenders. Roy Hibbert and David West were both able to beat up Bosh and take him out of his comfort zone. No disrespect to Duncan or Splitter, but neither of them has a distinct size advantage which will allow Bosh to do his normal damage on offense as well as on the boards.

Bench Players: Advantage Heat


Quite frankly, neither of these benches have been playing particularly well this postseason. That being said I'm giving the edge to the Heat because they have more players that tend to step up albeit not always at the same time. One game Shane Battier may step up, next Ray Allen will be big, then Norris Cole will knock down some corner threes. Then there's Chris "Birdman" Anderson who is always ready to come in and give the team some energy and defense. The Spurs, on the other hand, rely heavily on just one guy off the bench, Manu Ginobili. When he struggles the bench tends to struggle and this postseason has been a pretty rough one for him. He is shooting only 38% from the field and if he can't get that up at least into the low 40s then the starters for the Spurs are going to have to continue to carry most of the load offensively.

Coach: Advantage Spurs


I believe that Erik Spoelstra gets a tough rap from NBA fans. He has the best player in the NBA on his team so when the team wins he gets very little credit, but when they lose people start calling for him to lose his job. I personally think that he's a very good coach and is underrated in terms of making adjustments not only in between playoff games but even at half time as well. However, I formed my opinion of him before the Big 3 formed in Miami, aka before anyone else started to actually watch the Heat. Despite having an absolutely horrible roster outside of Wade, he led the team to the playoffs both his seasons before the arrival of James and Bosh. All that being said, there isn't a better coach in the NBA than Gregg Popovich. Everyone knows about all the wins and all the championships, but my high opinion of him stems from how great he is at utilizing players to maximize their abilities. I see this series being somewhat of a chess match and if you're the Spurs, there's no one you'd rather have moving the pieces.

Prediction: Miami Heat in Seven


This is a very tough choice. Whichever way it goes I see this being a very tight series. I've seen a lot of people picking the Spurs in seven games but I have one issue with that. Frankly, I just don't see the Heat losing a game seven at home with a championship on the line. The Heat simply has another gear that they can access at times that no other team in the NBA can replicate. When they're on, they're ON. With their health in question it will certainly be difficult, but I think that when push comes to shove Miami's big three are going to step up. The Heat are going to spread the Spurs out on defense by hitting the outside shot with more consistency which will open up driving lanes for Wade and James. Quite simply, I think LeBron is going to find a way to will his team to victory. It may be overly simplistic but it's gotten me this far and I'm not going to abandon my preseason pick now. King James will be crowned for the second year in a row as he moves closer to cementing his legacy as an all-time great.

Finals MVP: LeBron James


This is pretty obvious. If the Miami Heat win it's going to be on the shoulders of LeBron James. He is the best player in the world and continues to get better and better. As if it wasn't scary enough for Spurs fans to have to face him, add the fact that he is undoubtedly seeking revenge. In James' first finals appearance he was swept by the Spurs at the age of 22. Neither he nor his team were ready for a challenge of that magnitude back in 2007, but that doesn't make the sting any less harsh. Be prepared to see LeBron on a warpath in this series as he exacts revenge on the team that took away his first chance for a championship ring.
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Thursday, May 23, 2013

Frank Vogel Cost His Team Game 1


I have considered Frank Vogel to be one of the better coaches in the NBA for what he has done for this Indiana Pacers team. However, he made a serious error at the most crucial time in the first game of the Heat vs. Pacers series. Let's take a step back for a moment and look at the situation as a whole. 

This Miami Heat team has been known to let its guard down in the first game of series, even as recently as the last series against the Bulls. When you are an underdog, stealing game one is crucial to try to pull off the upset. The Pacers had the perfect opportunity to do just that yesterday. With a two point lead and under twenty seconds left in the game, Ray Allen went to the free throw line. Allen is a career 89% free throw shooter and is known as one of the most clutch shooters of all time. He hit only one of two, giving Miami only a three point lead, rather than making it a two possession game.

After Paul George hit a three to send it into overtime, the two teams went back and forth for five minutes. With a two point lead with 2.2 seconds left, Dwyane Wade fouled George while he was shooting a three pointer, leading to three foul shots. He hit all three to give his team the lead. Point being, at two crucial points in the game, the Heat made uncharacteristic mistakes that gave Indiana the perfect chance to steal the game.

This is where Vogel's mistake comes into play. In the last minute he started to take Roy Hibbert out of the game when they were on defense so he could have someone else out there to defend outside shooters. The problem is without Hibbert they have no one to defend the rim. Even when he is not blocking shots, he makes his presence felt and alters most shots down low.

What was the result of this decision? Twice in the last ten seconds LeBron James was able to get to the rim for a layup, including the buzzer beating game winner, which is in the picture at the top of this article. As you can see, there was no one waiting for him at the rim and he was able to get an uncontested layup. Had Hibbert been in the game it would have been a much more difficult shot.

The argument I hear in favor of Vogel's decision is that Hibbert would have trouble going out to the perimeter to defend Bosh, especially on the last play of the game. However, that really would have been worth the risk. With only 2.2 seconds remaining in the game there was very limited time to make a move with the ball and everyone and their mother knew the ball was going to LeBron. So even if LeBron would have seen Hibbert at the rim and decided to pass it to Bosh, he would have had to put up a difficult, rushed jumper. Clearly that would be a much more difficult shot than an uncontested layup. While the series is far from over, Vogel cost his team a great opportunity.
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Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Eastern Conference Finals Preview

#1 Miami Heat vs. #3 Indiana Pacers

(http://lopsports.wordpress.com/)

In a rematch from last years playoffs, the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers meet up with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. If this series is anything like last year's, we're all in for a treat. While the Heat are undoubtedly the best team in the NBA, the Pacers have always given them trouble and even won two of the three meetings this season. With a size advantage at almost every position the Pacers will provide a great challenge to Miami. Will that be enough to dethrone the reigning champs? Let's take a look.

Key Matchup: George Hill vs. Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole

George Hill is not a true point guard, but in order to best serve the needs of the Pacers that is the position he plays. While he doesn't exactly rack up the assists on a game by game basis, he acts as the stabilizing force that gets the team into their offensive sets efficiently. This means his impact on the game goes far beyond what you see on the stat sheet. The perfect example was his absence from game five of the series against the Knicks due to a concussion. With a chance to end the series then and there, the Pacers found themselves down by a few points in the waning minutes of the game. Without Hill they struggled to get the ball up the court and get set in their offense, leading to a handful of game changing turnovers. They finished that game with a total of 19 turnovers, noticeably higher than their season average of 14.5 per game. The key to disrupting the Pacers offense is to give Hill a hard time and make it difficult for him to get the offense started. This task will be appointed to the combination of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole. If they can succeed then it will be extremely difficult for the Pacers to score enough points to beat the Heat, especially since Miami thrives in transition. Be sure to keep an eye on this match-up.

Heat X-Factor: Dwyane Wade

Dwyane Wade is my absolute favorite player, which is why it saddens me to be referring to him as an X-factor. It used to be that you always knew what you were going to get from Wade each time he stepped on the court. However, due to him dealing with a knee injury, we really don't know what version of him we're going to see. The pain he is feeling in his knee makes it very difficult for him to jump or even plant and push off that leg. This has resulted in him being far less aggressive than he usually is. In the series against the Bulls he took only 11 shots per game, compared to the 16 per game he shot during the regular season. Even more telling his lack of free throw attempts during the series against Chicago. In five games he only attempted six free throws. This is the same man that has averaged almost nine foul shots per game over his entire career. This is a direct result of his less aggressive style of play. If they can keep his knee pain under control and allow him to play a more aggressive game then he gives the Heat a much better chance of winning. Sadly, even if the pain is mitigated we probably won't be seeing him make any plays like this. And just cause I love watching this highlight from back in 2009, here ya go.

Pacers X-Factor: Roy Hibbert


Roy Hibbert is one of the most inconsistent and frustrating players in the NBA. He's frustrating because he has so much potential to be one of the best centers in the league. The 26 year old stands at a legitimate 7'2" yet only tallied 8.3 rebounds per game this season and shot only 45% from the field (24th among NBA centers). Despite some of his offensive struggles he has solidified himself as one of the best defensive centers in the game, averaging 2.6 blocks per game this season. His inconsistencies on the offensive end are what makes him the X-factor for the Pacers in this series. The only true weakness of the Heat is their lack of size in the interior. While the mid-season addition of Birdman helped to mitigate that problem to a certain extent, even he doesn't have the size to take on Hibbert alone. Keeping this in mind, for the Pacers to win this series it is essential for him to assert his dominance on the offensive end. Inconsistency like he displayed against the Knicks just won't cut it in this series. While he had a good series overall he had a few games where he just didn't show up offensively. His point total for each game was 14, 6, 24, 6, 9, 21. If he can play like he did in games 1, 3, and 6 of that series then he will put Indiana in a good place to win. However, if his performance matches is output from games 2, 4, and 5 the Heat will win this series with ease.

Prediction: Miami in six

Why yes, that is a picture from the Miami Heat doing the Harlem Shake. In case you haven't seen the video, here it is. Anyway, despite the tough match-up for Miami I still believe that they will prevail in this series. The difference maker is that in a close game, Miami has multiple options to go to including King James himself, the most clutch player in the NBA. Yes, you read that correctly. The MOST CLUTCH player in the NBA. Although Indiana has a lot of young talent and Paul George is an emerging star, they do not have that reliable guy to go to at the end of the game when they need a basket. I see this being a relatively low scoring series that is filled with close games which makes late game execution even more crucial. In addition, Indiana is going to struggle to defend Miami when they go small and put LeBron at power forward and Chris Bosh at center. This will spread out the defense and force David West and Hibbert to defend much farther out then they're accustomed. While the Pacers will be able to steal one or two games from the Heat on pure size and physicality, the talent of Miami and King James will lead them to the NBA Finals.
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Sunday, May 19, 2013

Western Conference Finals Preview

#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies


Sadly, I was unable to write about the previous round due to being in the midst of finals, but it was certainly a thrilling second round of the NBA playoffs. Although the Grizzlies series was only five games long, they were all very close games, going down to the final minute each time. The Thunder were simply unable to overcome the big size advantage the Grizzlies had down low, and the absence of Russell Westbrook really took its toll. Now Memphis will be facing San Antonio, who was able to dispatch the Golden State Warriors in an exciting six game series. Emerging superstar Stephen Curry gave the Spurs just about all they could handle, but after surviving that series, they now have to face an even greater challenge.

Key Match-up: Tony Parker vs. Mike Conley

(http://nba.si.com/2013/01/11/memphis-grizzlies-san-antonio-spurs/)

The Spurs truly go as Tony Parker goes. While the team clearly has plenty of talent, Parker is the most important player on the team as he is not only asked to set up his teammates, but also score quite a bit. The Spurs are 8-2 so far in this year's playoffs and there is a direct correlation between how well Parker plays and whether or not the team wins. In their 8 wins, Parker is averaging 23.4 points on 47% shooting, while also tallying 7.1 assists. In their two losses, he is averaging 18.5 points on 38% shooting to go along with a measly 3 assists. While Mike Conley has struggled shooting during the playoffs, he is still one of the best defenders in the league, and even received the honor of NBA All-Defensive Second Team. He will be guarding Parker the majority of the time and must find a way to slow him down if his team is going to win. Whoever wins this match-up will most likely be moving on to the NBA Finals.

Spurs X-Factor: Manu Ginobili
(http://www.fantasysmacktalk.com/2012-2013-fantasy-basketball-busts-and-overvalued/)

GIINNNOBBILLLIIIIIIIII!!!!...Ah, its so much fun listening to Charles Barkley. Anyway, Manu Ginobili is the definition of an X-factor. You really never know exactly what you're going to get out of him. Sometimes he puts up the most mind boggling and dumb shots, and other times he is one of the most clutch players in the league. The first video in this link of Gregg Popovich pretty much sums up how hot and cold Ginobili can be. To this point in the playoffs Ginobili has struggled to find any rhythm offensively as he is shooting only 38% from the floor for a total of 12.1 points per game. This will be the toughest test for the Spurs yet this postseason and they're going to need him to be at his best if they're going to be able to defeat the Grizzlies. If he can get his shot going and provide that offensive spark off the bench, then he will give his team a good chance of winning. If he can't do that, however, he and his team will be heading home sooner than later.

Grizzlies X-Factor: Tony Allen
(http://www.commercialappeal.com/photos/galleries/2011/apr/30/grizzlies-vs-spurs-game-6---april-29-2011/)

Tony Allen is quite possibly the best wing defender in the NBA, leading to him being named to the NBA All-Defensive First Team this year. You always know what you are going to get from him at that end of the floor. The offensive end is a different story. The Grizz are at their best when he is aggressively looking for his shot. The problem with that is he sometimes gets passive offensively and does not attack the opposing defenses. In his team's three losses this postseason, he has taken an average of only six shots per game. In their eight wins, however, he has put up 9.4 shots per game. While this may seem like an insignificant difference, I assure you it is not. When he is being passive the opposing defense can basically ignore him and focus on stopping the other members of his team. They cannot do this when he is looking for his shot, so while three more shots per game seems like nothing, that little difference makes his team much harder to defend. If he is aggressive this series then he gives Memphis a good chance of winning.

Prediction: Memphis in Six

(http://www.sportsworldreport.com/)

I have been telling people for a while now not to underestimate the Memphis Grizzlies. While they are a very good team during the regular season, they're even better in the postseason because they are perfectly built for the NBA Playoffs. First and foremost, they are a physically tough and strong defensive team. This is of even more importance in the postseason due to the inherently more physical style of play that occurs this time of year. To put their defensive prowess into perspective, they had three of their players named to an NBA All-Defensive team this year, including the newly crowned Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol. Secondly, they have Conley at point guard who is as good as anyone in the league at getting opposing players out of their rhythm. This becomes even more valuable during the playoffs when executing offensively is more difficult and therefore more important. Since teams rely on their point guards to run their offenses, having a guy like Conley is crucial. Lastly, they have great size down low. With Gasol at the center position and Zach Randolph at power forward, they have a great combination of rebounding, scoring, passing, and defense. Not many teams in the league have big men that can keep up with these two for an entire seven game series, making them very difficult to beat. While the Spurs' Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward of all time, at this point in his career he is going to have trouble dealing with the huge front line of the Grizzlies. With all these factors added together, I see Memphis moving on to their first trip to the NBA Finals.
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