Pick: Thunder in 5 games
In this match-up, everyone is focusing on it being James Harden vs. his former team, the Oklahoma City Thunder. While he has certainly emerged as a star in this league, that will not be enough to take down the defending Western Conference Champions. Although I don't project this to be a particularly competitive series, it will be entertaining while it lasts because they will be fast paced, high scoring games. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are the second best one-two punch in the NBA (behind Dwyane Wade and Lebron James) and that will be too much for the Rockets to handle. They will probably steal a game at home because they do have the capability of getting hot from three point range, but that won't save them from an early exit from this year's postseason.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Spurs in 5 games
The Spurs and Lakers have been going in opposite directions over the past couple of weeks. During the month of April the Spurs only won 3 out of 9 games, whereas the Lakers won 7 of their 8 April competitions. While this shouldn't be ignored, people are overreacting to this small sample size of the season. If the Lakers still had Kobe then I think this series would be much, much closer. However, the fact of the matter is that without Kobe this team just doesn't have enough firepower to win a playoff series. While Dwight Howard and Pao Gasol are probably the best big man combo in the game, outside of those two the Lakers just frankly aren't very good. Although Steve Nash is returning from injury, he has very little chemistry with the team and is the definition of a liability on defense. The Spurs are simply a much deeper team and will therefore be able to take advantage of the Lakers weak bench. Also, when all is said and done, Gregg Popovich is arguably the best coach in the NBA and I would bet on him over Mike D'Antoni any day.
#3 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Golden State Warriors
Pick: Nuggets in 7 games
This could quite possibly be the most entertaining of the first round series. This is a match-up of two of the most high powered offenses in the league which will result in some very high scoring games. The Nuggets are a very interesting team. They lack a true superstar, but have a large collection of very talented players that play very well together. Conventional thought is that it's impossible to win a championship without that go to superstar when the game is on the line, but the Nuggets will be looking to change that mindset this year. Although they don't have that one superstar, they are probably the deepest team in the NBA which will be crucial for their postseason run as they lost Danilo Gallinari to a torn ACL a few weeks ago. It will be up to Wilson Chandler to step up and fill that role, something that I believe he is more than capable of doing. Although Stephen Curry has emerged this year has a star, I don't see the Warriors winning a game in Denver as the Nuggets only lost three games there all season.
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Grizzlies in 6 games
I feel like a broken record by saying once again that this is going to be a great series. But it really is. These two teams are so closely matched that it was very difficult for me to pick who would win. I want to start by making clear the immense respect I have for the game of Clippers' point gaurd Chris Paul. He is without a doubt the best point guard in the league right now and can do almost anything on both sides of the floor. He's a very pesky defender and easily gets under the skin of his opponents. On offense he knows when to score and when to set up his teammates. I have no doubt that if it was asked of him, he could score 25+ points per game for an entire season. That being said, I think the Grizzlies have the perfect formula to beat the Clippers. Mike Conley has become one of the best defenders in the league, and while he won't be able to stop Chris Paul, he can certainly make his life difficult. With that being the case, other players like Blake Griffin are going to have to step up for the Clippers. The best lineup for them involves both Griffin and DeAndre Jordan being on the floor. This is going to be a big problem at the ends of games because both of them are sub par (and I'm being gentle) free throw shooters. This season Griffin shot 66% from the charity stripe while Jordan shot 39% from the line. At the end of a close game you can be sure that the Grizzlies will put these two on the line and if they can't make them it's going to be hard for the Clippers to win this series.
