Frank Vogel Cost His Team Game 1

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I have considered Frank Vogel to be one of the better coaches in the NBA for what he has done for this Indiana Pacers team. However, he made a serious error at the most crucial time in the first game of the Heat vs. Pacers series. Let's take a step back for a moment and look at the situation as a whole. 

This Miami Heat team has been known to let its guard down in the first game of series, even as recently as the last series against the Bulls. When you are an underdog, stealing game one is crucial to try to pull off the upset. The Pacers had the perfect opportunity to do just that yesterday. With a two point lead and under twenty seconds left in the game, Ray Allen went to the free throw line. Allen is a career 89% free throw shooter and is known as one of the most clutch shooters of all time. He hit only one of two, giving Miami only a three point lead, rather than making it a two possession game.

After Paul George hit a three to send it into overtime, the two teams went back and forth for five minutes. With a two point lead with 2.2 seconds left, Dwyane Wade fouled George while he was shooting a three pointer, leading to three foul shots. He hit all three to give his team the lead. Point being, at two crucial points in the game, the Heat made uncharacteristic mistakes that gave Indiana the perfect chance to steal the game.

This is where Vogel's mistake comes into play. In the last minute he started to take Roy Hibbert out of the game when they were on defense so he could have someone else out there to defend outside shooters. The problem is without Hibbert they have no one to defend the rim. Even when he is not blocking shots, he makes his presence felt and alters most shots down low.

What was the result of this decision? Twice in the last ten seconds LeBron James was able to get to the rim for a layup, including the buzzer beating game winner, which is in the picture at the top of this article. As you can see, there was no one waiting for him at the rim and he was able to get an uncontested layup. Had Hibbert been in the game it would have been a much more difficult shot.

The argument I hear in favor of Vogel's decision is that Hibbert would have trouble going out to the perimeter to defend Bosh, especially on the last play of the game. However, that really would have been worth the risk. With only 2.2 seconds remaining in the game there was very limited time to make a move with the ball and everyone and their mother knew the ball was going to LeBron. So even if LeBron would have seen Hibbert at the rim and decided to pass it to Bosh, he would have had to put up a difficult, rushed jumper. Clearly that would be a much more difficult shot than an uncontested layup. While the series is far from over, Vogel cost his team a great opportunity.

Eastern Conference Finals Preview

#1 Miami Heat vs. #3 Indiana Pacers

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In a rematch from last years playoffs, the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers meet up with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. If this series is anything like last year's, we're all in for a treat. While the Heat are undoubtedly the best team in the NBA, the Pacers have always given them trouble and even won two of the three meetings this season. With a size advantage at almost every position the Pacers will provide a great challenge to Miami. Will that be enough to dethrone the reigning champs? Let's take a look.

Key Matchup: George Hill vs. Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole

(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1644783-comparing-miami-heat-to-indiana-pacers-at-every-position-who-has-the-edge)

George Hill is not a true point guard, but in order to best serve the needs of the Pacers that is the position he plays. While he doesn't exactly rack up the assists on a game by game basis, he acts as the stabilizing force that gets the team into their offensive sets efficiently. This means his impact on the game goes far beyond what you see on the stat sheet. The perfect example was his absence from game five of the series against the Knicks due to a concussion. With a chance to end the series then and there, the Pacers found themselves down by a few points in the waning minutes of the game. Without Hill they struggled to get the ball up the court and get set in their offense, leading to a handful of game changing turnovers. They finished that game with a total of 19 turnovers, noticeably higher than their season average of 14.5 per game. The key to disrupting the Pacers offense is to give Hill a hard time and make it difficult for him to get the offense started. This task will be appointed to the combination of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole. If they can succeed then it will be extremely difficult for the Pacers to score enough points to beat the Heat, especially since Miami thrives in transition. Be sure to keep an eye on this match-up.

Heat X-Factor: Dwyane Wade

(http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/Wade-Knee-Pain-Kind-of-Going-Away-199981801.html)

Dwyane Wade is my absolute favorite player, which is why it saddens me to be referring to him as an X-factor. It used to be that you always knew what you were going to get from Wade each time he stepped on the court. However, due to him dealing with a knee injury, we really don't know what version of him we're going to see. The pain he is feeling in his knee makes it very difficult for him to jump or even plant and push off that leg. This has resulted in him being far less aggressive than he usually is. In the series against the Bulls he took only 11 shots per game, compared to the 16 per game he shot during the regular season. Even more telling his lack of free throw attempts during the series against Chicago. In five games he only attempted six free throws. This is the same man that has averaged almost nine foul shots per game over his entire career. This is a direct result of his less aggressive style of play. If they can keep his knee pain under control and allow him to play a more aggressive game then he gives the Heat a much better chance of winning. Sadly, even if the pain is mitigated we probably won't be seeing him make any plays like this. And just cause I love watching this highlight from back in 2009, here ya go.

Pacers X-Factor: Roy Hibbert

(http://rockets.clutchfans.net/2611/luring-roy-hibbert-tough-task-houston-rockets/)

Roy Hibbert is one of the most inconsistent and frustrating players in the NBA. He's frustrating because he has so much potential to be one of the best centers in the league. The 26 year old stands at a legitimate 7'2" yet only tallied 8.3 rebounds per game this season and shot only 45% from the field (24th among NBA centers). Despite some of his offensive struggles he has solidified himself as one of the best defensive centers in the game, averaging 2.6 blocks per game this season. His inconsistencies on the offensive end are what makes him the X-factor for the Pacers in this series. The only true weakness of the Heat is their lack of size in the interior. While the mid-season addition of Birdman helped to mitigate that problem to a certain extent, even he doesn't have the size to take on Hibbert alone. Keeping this in mind, for the Pacers to win this series it is essential for him to assert his dominance on the offensive end. Inconsistency like he displayed against the Knicks just won't cut it in this series. While he had a good series overall he had a few games where he just didn't show up offensively. His point total for each game was 14, 6, 24, 6, 9, 21. If he can play like he did in games 1, 3, and 6 of that series then he will put Indiana in a good place to win. However, if his performance matches is output from games 2, 4, and 5 the Heat will win this series with ease.

Prediction: Miami in six

(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir2TdfSwH8g)

Why yes, that is a picture from the Miami Heat doing the Harlem Shake. In case you haven't seen the video, here it is. Anyway, despite the tough match-up for Miami I still believe that they will prevail in this series. The difference maker is that in a close game, Miami has multiple options to go to including King James himself, the most clutch player in the NBA. Yes, you read that correctly. The MOST CLUTCH player in the NBA. Although Indiana has a lot of young talent and Paul George is an emerging star, they do not have that reliable guy to go to at the end of the game when they need a basket. I see this being a relatively low scoring series that is filled with close games which makes late game execution even more crucial. In addition, Indiana is going to struggle to defend Miami when they go small and put LeBron at power forward and Chris Bosh at center. This will spread out the defense and force David West and Hibbert to defend much farther out then they're accustomed. While the Pacers will be able to steal one or two games from the Heat on pure size and physicality, the talent of Miami and King James will lead them to the NBA Finals.

Western Conference Finals Preview

#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies

(http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20130518/san-antonio-spurs-memphis-grizzlies-nba-playoffs-2013-preview/)

Sadly, I was unable to write about the previous round due to being in the midst of finals, but it was certainly a thrilling second round of the NBA playoffs. Although the Grizzlies series was only five games long, they were all very close games, going down to the final minute each time. The Thunder were simply unable to overcome the big size advantage the Grizzlies had down low, and the absence of Russell Westbrook really took its toll. Now Memphis will be facing San Antonio, who was able to dispatch the Golden State Warriors in an exciting six game series. Emerging superstar Stephen Curry gave the Spurs just about all they could handle, but after surviving that series, they now have to face an even greater challenge.

Key Match-up: Tony Parker vs. Mike Conley

(http://nba.si.com/2013/01/11/memphis-grizzlies-san-antonio-spurs/)

The Spurs truly go as Tony Parker goes. While the team clearly has plenty of talent, Parker is the most important player on the team as he is not only asked to set up his teammates, but also score quite a bit. The Spurs are 8-2 so far in this year's playoffs and there is a direct correlation between how well Parker plays and whether or not the team wins. In their 8 wins, Parker is averaging 23.4 points on 47% shooting, while also tallying 7.1 assists. In their two losses, he is averaging 18.5 points on 38% shooting to go along with a measly 3 assists. While Mike Conley has struggled shooting during the playoffs, he is still one of the best defenders in the league, and even received the honor of NBA All-Defensive Second Team. He will be guarding Parker the majority of the time and must find a way to slow him down if his team is going to win. Whoever wins this match-up will most likely be moving on to the NBA Finals.

Spurs X-Factor: Manu Ginobili

(http://www.fantasysmacktalk.com/2012-2013-fantasy-basketball-busts-and-overvalued/)

GIINNNOBBILLLIIIIIIIII!!!!...Ah, its so much fun listening to Charles Barkley. Anyway, Manu Ginobili is the definition of an X-factor. You really never know exactly what you're going to get out of him. Sometimes he puts up the most mind boggling and dumb shots, and other times he is one of the most clutch players in the league. The first video in this link of Gregg Popovich pretty much sums up how hot and cold Ginobili can be. To this point in the playoffs Ginobili has struggled to find any rhythm offensively as he is shooting only 38% from the floor for a total of 12.1 points per game. This will be the toughest test for the Spurs yet this postseason and they're going to need him to be at his best if they're going to be able to defeat the Grizzlies. If he can get his shot going and provide that offensive spark off the bench, then he will give his team a good chance of winning. If he can't do that, however, he and his team will be heading home sooner than later.

Grizzlies X-Factor: Tony Allen

(http://www.commercialappeal.com/photos/galleries/2011/apr/30/grizzlies-vs-spurs-game-6---april-29-2011/)

Tony Allen is quite possibly the best wing defender in the NBA, leading to him being named to the NBA All-Defensive First Team this year. You always know what you are going to get from him at that end of the floor. The offensive end is a different story. The Grizz are at their best when he is aggressively looking for his shot. The problem with that is he sometimes gets passive offensively and does not attack the opposing defenses. In his team's three losses this postseason, he has taken an average of only six shots per game. In their eight wins, however, he has put up 9.4 shots per game. While this may seem like an insignificant difference, I assure you it is not. When he is being passive the opposing defense can basically ignore him and focus on stopping the other members of his team. They cannot do this when he is looking for his shot, so while three more shots per game seems like nothing, that little difference makes his team much harder to defend. If he is aggressive this series then he gives Memphis a good chance of winning.

Prediction: Memphis in Six

(http://www.sportsworldreport.com/)

I have been telling people for a while now not to underestimate the Memphis Grizzlies. While they are a very good team during the regular season, they're even better in the postseason because they are perfectly built for the NBA Playoffs. First and foremost, they are a physically tough and strong defensive team. This is of even more importance in the postseason due to the inherently more physical style of play that occurs this time of year. To put their defensive prowess into perspective, they had three of their players named to an NBA All-Defensive team this year, including the newly crowned Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol. Secondly, they have Conley at point guard who is as good as anyone in the league at getting opposing players out of their rhythm. This becomes even more valuable during the playoffs when executing offensively is more difficult and therefore more important. Since teams rely on their point guards to run their offenses, having a guy like Conley is crucial. Lastly, they have great size down low. With Gasol at the center position and Zach Randolph at power forward, they have a great combination of rebounding, scoring, passing, and defense. Not many teams in the league have big men that can keep up with these two for an entire seven game series, making them very difficult to beat. While the Spurs' Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward of all time, at this point in his career he is going to have trouble dealing with the huge front line of the Grizzlies. With all these factors added together, I see Memphis moving on to their first trip to the NBA Finals.