NBA All-Star Saturday Predictions

With all the fun events going on for All-Star Weekend tonight I figured I would have some fun and try to predict the winners of tonight's events.

NBA Shooting Stars Competition

(http://thesource.com/2014/02/06/nba-all-star-saturday-participants-announced-including-skills-challenge-3-point-contest/)

Team Rosters:
Team Curry: Steph Curry, Becky Hammon, Dell Curry
Team Durant: Kevin Durant, Skylar Diggins, Karl Malone
Team Bosh: Chris Bosh, Swin Cash, Dominique Wilkins
Team Hardaway: Tim Hardaway Jr., Elena Delle Donne, Tim Hardaway Sr.

This one is essentially a toss up for me but what the heck. For those of you who don't know the teams competing in this event consist of one current NBA player, one current WNBA player, and one retired NBA player (rosters above are listed in that order). There are designated spots on the floor the team must shoot from until they make the shot, finishing with a half court shot. The team that makes all the shots in the shortest time wins.

Anyone who watches this event knows that it always comes down to who can make the half court shot the quickest. Since skill plays very little role in who actually wins this competition I'm finding it difficult to predict a winner. But I am committed to providing my three avid readers only the best analysis, so I will not let you down! The winner will be Team Curry because...*runs away*

Prediction: Team Curry


NBA Skills Challenge

(http://thesource.com/2014/02/06/nba-all-star-saturday-participants-announced-including-skills-challenge-3-point-contest/)

West Teams: Damian Lillard and Trey Burke; Goran Dragic and Reggie Jackson
East Teams: Michael Carter-Williams and Victor Oladipo; DeMar DeRozan and Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Taco Bell Skills Challenge (gotta love sponsors) allows these young guards to display their prowess in various facets of the game as they shoot, dribble, and pass their way through an obstacle course. However, the NBA, in their never ending wisdom, has decided to make this a "team event" as four teams of two battle it out to be crowned champions.

The best duo from the West will be pitted against the best team from the East to see which can post the best combined time. This new format makes this much more difficult for me to choose. Before I was aware of the rule change I was trying to decide between Damian Lillard and Goran Dragic. Not only are they not on the same team but since they're in the same conference both of them can't make it to the finals. I need more time to think about this one so I'm going to start with the East.

I don't personally see this as being very competitive as I see one team as distinctly better than the other. Micael Carter-Williams and Victor Oladipo are just too skilled overall to not represent the East in the final round. While neither boast the most consistent shooting ability they both are adept at passing and ball handling. DeMar DeRozan and Giannis Antetokou blah blah (you try saying it!) don't have any skills that jump out at me that will help in this competition. DeRozan is a talented scorer but isn't known for ball handling or passing. Giannis is very tall (6'9") and lanky which doesn't normally equate to being able to navigate this course quickly.

Alright so I suppose I have to pick a Western winner now. Between Dragic and Lillard I think it's a wash. The winner is most likely to be determined by Reggie Jackson and Trey Burke. Jackson is in the midst of a breakout year as he has filled in wonderfully for the injured Russell Westbrook. Trey Burke is a rookie out of Michigan who was the National Player of the Year during his last season in college. Since being taken only ninth overall in the 2013 NBA Draft I think Burke has a chip on his shoulder and is going to take this opportunity to show everyone what he can do, propelling his team into the final round.

From there I think Lillard and Burke will run away with it against the East. All it takes is one missed shot and one missed pass and the team of Oladipo and MCW just don't have the shooting ability to make me pick them comfortably. Lillard has already won this competition once and I am a big believer in Burke, giving them the edge and winning them the Taco Bell Skills Challenge...presented by Taco Bell (in case you missed that).

Prediction: Damian Lillard and Trey Burke


NBA 3-Point Contest

(http://thesource.com/2014/02/06/nba-all-star-saturday-participants-announced-including-skills-challenge-3-point-contest/)

East Participants: Joe Johnson, Arron Afflalo, Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal
West Participants: Steph Curry, Kevin Love, Damian Lillard, Marco Belinelli

This is a pretty straightforward. Each contestant has limited time to take 25 three point shots from set locations around the arc. The player with the highest score from each conference will move on to compete in the final round for the win. There is plenty of analysis one could do in order to try to pick a winner for this contest, such as looking at threes attempted and three-point shooting percentages. I say nah. This is a gut feeling decision with just a little bit of the "eye test".

Kyrie Irving is the reigning champion of this event but I don't see him winning it again. You may think I only say that because he went to Duke. Well to that....I plead the fifth. I'm picking Bradley Beal to represent the East in the final round. He just has such a smooth motion and has very little body movement for each shot, which comes in handy since there is no time to waste.

From the West I can't pick against Steph Curry. His shot is just oh so pretty. And quick. Curry is perhaps the definition of "in the gym range" as he can make it rain from seemingly anywhere on the court. And he normally does this with defenders in his face. Wide open? Game over. In the final round it'll be a close battle but I think Curry pulls it out.

Prediction: Steph Curry


NBA Slam Dunk Contest

(http://thesource.com/2014/02/06/nba-all-star-saturday-participants-announced-including-skills-challenge-3-point-contest/)

Participants: Terrence Ross, Paul George, John Wall, Damian Lillard, Harrison Barnes, Ben McLemore

This year the NBA has changed the rules and format of this competition and if you really care then click this link to see. However, I'm not worried with which conference will "win", I'm just here to say who I think will be the best dunker tonight. All of these players possess a unique leaping ability and can throw it down like very few can. While this may not be the dunk contest filled with big name superstars that everyone wants to see (*cough cough* LeBron James) but I think it is going to be better than people are giving credit for. The sleeper to watch out for in this group is rookie Ben McLemore. Despite the less than stellar start to his career, there is no doubt that this young man can sky. He gets up above the rim without looking like he is even trying.

Another man to keep an eye on is Damian Lillard (a name you should be very familiar with by this point in my post). He just always seems to be playing angry with a chip on his shoulder and has proven he doesn't shrink when the spotlight is on him. Look for him to take some of that anger out on the rim tonight as he throws it down with surprising force.

The player I think will come out on top tonight, however, is Paul George. Obviously he is a phenomenal dunker, but so are the rest of the contestants. So what sets him apart? For those of you who don't remember George participated in the dunk contest back in 2012 and felt that he got robbed of a well deserved victory (for highlights of his dunks click here). He has openly expressed his frustration at not winning last time he competed and I think he intends on coming into the gym tonight and righting that wrong from two years ago.

Prediction: Paul George


Comment below with your picks for all the events tonight!

NBA Storylines So Far...

With the All-Star Break under way it's time to take a look at some story lines from the first half of the NBA season.

1. Blake Griffin has gone from overrated to underrated.

(http://club937.com/blake-griffin-ruins-pau-gasols-day-video/)

Whether fair or not I have always been a harsh critic of Blake Griffin. Since taking the league by storm during his rookie campaign I felt the media over-hyped him due to his monstrous dunks. Frankly, while the dunks looked cool, I was always mad because technically he would commit an offensive foul every time he dunked on someone as he extended his off arm into their faces (as seen above). The media quickly labeled him a star in the NBA and some even went so far as to call him a superstar. All I saw was an athletic young man with extreme dunking ability and not much else to offer either offensively or defensively. Not exactly "star" material. Now, in his fourth NBA season, it is clear that Griffin has put in the work to be a much more versatile player and the true definition of a star. Just using the eye test anyone watching can see that he now has a legitimate post game as well as the ability to step back and hit the mid range jumper. He has also improved his free throw percentage to a career high 71%. The numbers don't really do his improvement justice as some people can point to him rebounding at a lower rate than his first two years in the NBA. That, however, is in large part due to his teammate DeAndre Jordan leading the NBA with 14 rebounds per game. Additionally, he is actually averaging less assists per game than his rookie season as well. This is not a reflection of him, despite what some may say, because he now has Chris Paul handling the rock for the Clippers allowing him to be less of a play maker. To illustrate my point, in games that Paul has played in this season, Griffin averages 3.1 assists per game. While Paul was out with injury, that number jumped up to 4.4 apg. My last point will be to look at the Clippers win percentage. With Paul in the lineup the Clippers have a win percentage of 67.6%. In the 18 games Paul missed the Clippers win percentage only dropped to 66.7%, despite missing arguably the best point guard in the NBA. Griffin upping his game is the primary reason for that and is proof that he now deserves the accolades that he is no longer getting. 

2. The MVP race.

(http://streetball.com/photo/nba-mvp-2014)

Although there are always multiple names thrown around as possible MVP candidates, each year there are really only two. This year the race is between LeBron James and Kevin Durant. I know...shocking. I'm not going to spend any time comparing their stats because frankly you can do that for yourself. And most of you probably have your opinion set on who should win, at least to this point in the year. Durant is a scoring machine, James is the model of efficiency, blah blah blah. For now, I'm going to keep my opinion of who deserves it to myself. But I will tell you all who I think will be given the award. This year Durant will be the NBA MVP (barring some kind of physical or emotional breakdown). The reason I say this with confidence is because James has already won it two consecutive years and voters simply do not like voting for the same guy three years in a row. That's not to say Durant doesn't deserve it, it's just why I'm so confident about what the outcome will be. In the history of the NBA only three people have won three straight MVP awards: Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird. Bird was the most recent yet was almost thirty years ago. Even though James is still the best player in the world, the MVP will elude him this year. On an additional note, as I said before the MVP race is really only ever between two players. However other names get thrown around and that in and of itself is an honor. Those names this year include Blake Griffin, Paul George, and LaMarcus Aldridge. I just want to throw another name in there that is not getting nearly enough credit, Stephen Curry. He is currently 5th in the NBA in scoring, 2nd in assists, and 11th in steals for good measure. He is also remarkably efficient from the floor at 46.3% despite taking over 8 threes a game. Not to mention he is regarded by many NBA players as the toughest guy to guard because he can pull up from anywhere on a dime.

3. The 2013 NBA Draft was terrible.

(http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/06/27/196389843/cleveland-takes-unlvs-bennett-with-first-pick-of-nba-draft)

The 2013 NBA Draft was terrible. The 2013 NBA Draft was terrible. One more time for emphasis...the 2013 NBA Draft was terrible. I watch a lot of basketball, so I'm not just looking at the stats and making these statements. I understand that a lot of these guys were considered projects and will take time to come into their own. But from what I've seen, there are only three players from this draft that I see having "good" NBA careers: Trey Burke, Michael Carter-Williams, and Victor Oladipo. Anthony Bennett to date has been the worst first overall pick in my lifetime. Otto Porter Jr. can't crack into the lowly Wizards lineup. Cody Zeller can't seem to buy a basket despite his 7 foot height and surprising athleticism. Alex Len might become a decent back up one day... maybe... possibly...I don't know. But he has trouble catching the ball and finishing against stronger defenders, a problem that dates back to his time at Maryland. I could go on but it really would just become repetitive. The point is none of these rookies seemed really ready for the NBA and are likely to fall back into obscurity within a few years.

4. Kendall Marshall deserves a starting spot in the NBA.

(http://lakerholicz.com/kendall-marshall-silences-the-critics-in-boston/2014/01/17)

I have been high on this young man ever since he was drafted out of North Carolina in 2012, as you can see from a previous blog post of mine. Due to injuries, primarily at the guard position, the Los Angeles Lakers reached a point of desperation this season, and in that desperation they found a lost gem named Kendall Marshall. Marshall spent most of his rookie season on the bench as he was backing up Goran Dragic in Phoenix. When the Lakers picked him up as a last resort, he saw his opportunity and he took it. In 16 games as a starter for Los Angeles Marshall averaged 11.9 assists per game, a rate that would be good for first in the NBA if he played enough to qualify for that stat. He was also able to score 12 points per game on 44% shooting. While his scoring numbers don't jump off the page, he has shown the ability to put the ball in the hoop when he needs to in between all the times he sets up his teammates for easy scores with his uncanny passing ability. Whether it is with the Lakers or some other team, Marshall has proven that he should be the starting point guard for some NBA team next season.

5. Anthony Davis was worth the hype (when healthy).

(http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/pelicans/2013/10/16/anthony-davis-austin-rivers-contract-option-new-orleans/2996559/)

Anthony Davis showed flashes of his insane potential during his injury riddled rookie campaign last year. In this, his second year in the NBA, he has shown everybody that there was a good reason he was so hyped coming out of college. At only 20 years of age he is averaging 20.5 points per game to go along with 10.1 rebounds and 3.1 blocks. These numbers are extremely impressive for anyone, let alone a 20 year old. They are also eerily similar to Tim Duncan's second year stats, and we all know how amazing his career has turned out. The only downside with this kid is the caveat every athlete hopes to avoid..."when healthy". Davis has already missed 26 games due to injury in his young career which is almost 20% of his team's games. Hopefully this is not a sign of things to come and he will go on to have a long and (relatively) injury free career because if so we are all in for a treat.

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

After an extremely busy semester I am now back on the blogosphere. Let's get back into the swing of things by picking the four NFL playoff games happening his weekend.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints

(http://www.ultimatesportstalk.com/2013/12/02/series-history-past-and-present-games-between-new-orleans-saints-and-seattle-seahawks/)

This has become a relatively familiar match-up over the past few years ever since the Seahawks upset the Saints in 2011. This time around, however, it is New Orleans who is the underdog. This contest pits second year quarterback Russel Wilson (right side of pic above) against storied veteran Drew Brees (left side of pic above) who already has a Super Bowl ring in his collection. The Saints boast a much improved defense this year to go along with a deadly offensive attack. The Seahawks, however, have arguably the best defense in the league anchored by some of the most physical cornerbacks you will ever see play. The offense for Seattle, while not stellar, is certainly not to be taken for granted as Wilson effectively leads the read option offense with the help of running back Marshawn Lynch. The key to picking this game is how much of a different team the Saints are on the road than they are at home. Brees, while still above average, posts sub par numbers on the road compared to his home game stats. The Seahawks also have one of the largest home field advantages in the entire NFL which will not make the Saints job any easier. This will probably be a defensive battle with both teams scoring in the low twenties in what will be a very close contest.

Pick: Seattle 23-20

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts

(http://profootballspot.com/_/nfl/collaboratives/afc-east-afc-south/colts-vs-patriots-showdown-%E2%80%93-who-wins-and-why-r1729)

If there is one thing I have learned to do in my time watching football it is not to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, especially in their first playoff game of the season. Only two times in Brady's playoff career has he lost in his first playoff game. The Colts, on the other hand are coming off of an impressive comeback win against the Kansas City Chiefs last week in the Wild Card round which has a lot of people jumping on the Colts bandwagon. I don't mean to say that the comeback wasn't impressive, but people seem to forget why the comeback was necessary...they fell behind by a lot. You simply cannot do that against New England and expect to win. While there is no doubt that Andrew Luck will be one of the best QBs in the league very soon, he still tends to throw too many interceptions, a mistake you don't want to make against the Patriots. Additionally, the Colts lack a consistent running game which often results in a one dimensional game plan for Indianapolis, further playing into the Patriots hands. That being said I do see it being a close match-up that will probably come down to a game winning drive by one of these two quarterbacks.

Pick: Patriots 34-31

Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers

(http://beachcarolina.com/2013/11/09/what-to-watch-panthers-at-49ers/)

This was the most difficult game for me to pick as I kept going back and forth in my head. However I have to follow my gut, even if it is being influenced by how Colin Kaepernick broke my heart in fantasy football this season. These two teams are almost identical. They are both defensive minded clubs that have mobile quarterbacks and a solid running game. This will undoubtedly be a low scoring contest, much like their regular season match-up that ended with the Panthers winning 10-9. Kaepernick has much more playoff experience than Panthers QB Cam Newton which does give an advantage to the 49ers. However, in a defensive game like this there probably won't be much of a difference between the two QBs overall performances. Both will probably struggle to move the ball down the field for most of the day, which interestingly enough plays into Carolinas hands. The 49ers have gone as Kaepernick has gone this season. In their wins he boasts a passer rating of 107.6, whereas he has an abysmal passer rating of 45.9 in losses. Newton's passer rating on the other hand is less than 20 points higher in wins than in losses, with ratings of 94.2 and 74.9 respectively. If Kaepernick struggles, which I believe he will against the stout Panthers defense, it will be very difficult for the 49ers to win.

Pick: Panthers 16-13

Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers

(http://blog.betdsi.com/nfl-betting-predictions-denver-broncos-vs-san-diego-chargers/)

There is no doubt in my mind that the Broncos are the better overall team in this match-up. However I find myself not feeling too good about picking them to win. Not only does Peyton Manning tend to struggle in the playoffs, those struggles are amplified when he plays against the Chargers. Over the years it seems like Philip Rivers and the Chargers have had Peyton Manning's number, which means that they will not go into this game intimidated by his record breaking season Manning just had. Just a few weeks ago in a regular season contest between these two teams the chargers came out victorious. San Diego just barely squeaked into the playoffs, needing to win each of its last few games, so they have been in playoff mode for a while now. Watching the playoffs over the years it is apparent that a team that caught fire late in the season cannot be overlooked. This will definitely be a shootout between Manning and Rivers and the game will most likely come down to which quarterback can avoid the big mistake.

Pick: Chargers 38-35