Monday, October 29, 2012

NBA Season Preview

Tomorrow marks the glorious start of the 2012-2013 NBA Season. Let's take a look at some of my predictions for this season:

MVP: LeBron James



It's scary to think that LeBron James can get even better, but its true. I could go into all the things he does well but, I mean, what's the point? It's simple. James is the best player in the NBA. That's all there is to it. There's a reason he has already won this award three times. The part that's scary is that he is probably going to have his best statistical season of his career, in large part because he is going to be spending a lot of time at the "power forward" position. His scoring will be the same as always, aka however high he decides to make it. His assists will also stay on par. His rebounding is probably going to see a spike as he finds himself playing down low even more often than before, resulting in him averaging a career high of around nine rebounds per game. His efficiency is also going to increase as he continues to post up far more often and shoot threes at a much lower rate than his career average. On a side note I believe it's only fair to point out that LeBron made a career high 36.2% of his threes last year, proving that while it isn't the best part of his game, it's certainly more than serviceable. While it's tempting to pick someone else for this award like Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, or even Carmelo Anthony, we are about to witness an unstoppable force that hasn't been seen in the NBA for years.

2nd Place: Kevin Durant
3rd Place: Carmelo Anthony

Rookie Of the Year: Damian Lillard



In all honesty this award has already been decided. Barring a bad injury it will be given to Anthony Davis. But I believe that Damian Lillard will be more than deserving of this distinguished award and will actually steal some votes away from Davis. Back at Weber State he proved he can score from the point guard position, averaging 24.5 points per game during his senior year. What is underrated about his game is his playmaking ability because he was forced to play the role of primary scorer in college (I mean lets be real, he went to Weber State...If he didn't score who would?). While scoring is certainly his best asset and he'll never lead the league in assists, he is more than capable of getting his teammates involved and making people around him better. The thing that pushes him above Anthony Davis in my book is the fact that I see Lillard playing an integral role in getting Portland back into the playoffs, even if it is just as an 8th seed. While the Hornets have some young talent on the roster, it will not be enough to get them into the playoffs this season, especially considering the fact that their best player, Eric Gordon, can't seem to stay healthy.

2nd Place: Anthony Davis
3rd Place: Bradley Beal

Sixth Man of the Year: Kevin Martin



I was all prepared to write this segment about James Harden. He was by far the most talented player coming off the bench and had a role that he fit in quite well with the Oklahoma City Thunder. But then OKC had to go and be jerks and trade him away, creating even more work for me. So inconsiderate. Well, anyway, with Harden now with the Houston Rockets, and presumably in the starting lineup, I had to look through the NBA and see who would be the best player coming off the bench this season. Ironically, what I found is that this award has the great potential of going to an OKC player once again. For this to come to fruition, Kevin Martin will have to embrace the role of coming off the bench, and if he does, watch out. This role would be absolutely perfect for Martin because he will be asked to do one thing, and one thing only. Score. And this is what Martin does best. While defense has never been a strong suit for Martin, scoring has never been an issue as he has a career average of 18.4 points per game. Coming off the bench for OKC, he is going to be asked to provide a scoring punch and some instant offense for the team, something that he can do as well as anyone in the league.

2nd Place: Jason Terry
3rd Place: Ray Allen

Most Improved Player: Jrue Holiday



This is the hardest award for me to predict simply because there are so many candidates and it often goes to someone relatively unknown prior to his breakout season. But I'm going to take a stab at it by giving this award to Jrue Holiday. He has shown flashes of his immense potential but has yet to fully realize it. He actually even took a step back last year after a very good sophomore campaign. However the recent roster shake up in Philadelphia provides Holiday with the opportunity to finally show how good he can be, and I think he will. The key is the departure of Andre Iguodala, as well as Lou Williams. While both are very good players in their own way, I think they held Holiday back. Iggy is more of a point forward than small forward, so he spent a lot of the time handling the ball. This took away from Holiday's playmaking opportunities. Then there was sixth man point guard Williams who was always ready to come off the bench should Holiday make a mistake or play poorly. Without that pressure he will be able to play more freely and without worrying about his back up replacing him. Now, along with help from a dominant post presence in Andrew Bynum, I see Holiday increasing his assists, scoring, and efficiency, while also helping to lead the Sixers back to the playoffs, earning him this award.

2nd Place: Klay Thompson
3rd Place: Michael Beasley

Defensive Player of the Year: Josh Smith aka J-Smoove



Now that Joe Johnson is gone from the Atlanta Hawks this is undoubtedly Josh Smith's team. He is also entering a contract year, so we'll probably see him working his tail off to earn the big bucks on his next contract. He has always been a versatile defender whether it's blocking shots, getting steals, or simply shutting down multiple positions. His insane athletic ability allows him to do almost anything on the defensive end when he puts his mind to it. He has also continued to improve his rebounding, posting a career high 9.6 rebounds per game last season. This continued improvement, coupled with his desire to prove himself as a leader of a team, will result in his best season yet as a pro. This will be enough to earn him this distinguished honor. Other guys who have potential to get this award also have a little bit stacked against them giving J-Smoove the edge. LeBron is the most versatile defender in the league, but his defensive prowess will play a role in him winning the MVP. Dwight Howard is another guy who has a good shot at winning it, but he's fighting back issues making me hesitant to give him this award.

2nd Place: LeBron James
3rd Place: Dwight Howard

Coach of the Year: Frank Vogel



The Indiana Pacers have a group of talented players that play very well as a team, especially on the defensive end. What they lack, however, is a true star. A guy that, with the game on the line, they can turn to and say "make something happen". This is when coaching becomes even more important, and this is why I have Frank Vogel taking this award. He keeps his players playing for each other and for the team as a whole, rather than for themselves. When you add their balanced depth with the continued improvement of Roy Hibbert and Paul George, I have the Pacers finishing as the three seed in the East. A top three finish devoid of a star will be extremely impressive, resulting in Vogel being given this award.

2nd Place: George Karl
3rd Place: Mark Jackson

NBA Finals Prediction: Miami Heat over OKC Thunder



Real original, right? I'm predicting a finals rematch. Real clever. I'm even predicting the same outcome. Maybe I'm just getting lazy as this article comes to an end. Or maybe I'm a psychic and have looked into the future. Either way, this is my prediction. While the Eastern Conference has certainly been improving, there really isn't a team out there that can compete with them in a seven game series, especially with Derrick Rose possibly missing the whole year. I'm not saying it'll be easy, but with LeBron playing on a whole new level, D Wade making it to the playoffs healthy, and Bosh thriving at the Center position, there really isn't anyone in the East that can stop them. Now the Western Conference is a much more difficult thing to predict. While there is a plethora of good teams out in the West like the Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, and Clippers, none of them have a one-two punch like the Thunder. Yes, that includes the Lakers. They're a very good team, but they won't be able to handle the Thunder in a seven game series. Kendrick Perkins has historically been one of the few centers that can keep Dwight Howard in check. Also, Steve Nash will not be able to even remotely slow down Russell Westbrook. Once they get back to the Finals, however, that's where is ends. While the James Harden trade doesn't make the Thunder worse, it doesn't make them any better either. The Heat on the other hand have gotten even better than last year with the additions of sharp shooters like Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. This will result in Miami winning their second straight championship, and LeBron winning yet another Finals MVP, further cementing his position as best player in the league.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Ranking the NFL's Top Running Backs

Although the NFL has become a pass first league, there is a plethora of talent at the running back position. Let's take a look at the top five players at that position right now:

5. Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)


As the only rookie in my top five, Doug Martin may be the most surprising player to make it onto my list. Some may say that I'm a prisoner of the moment, seeing as just last night Martin had a breakout performance against the Minnesota Vikings. He ran for 135 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries to go along with 79 receiving yards and another touchdown on 3 catches. This performance was no fluke and he is most certainly deserving of this ranking. While there were certainly other players that I strongly considered for my list that just barely missed it (Jamaal Charles, Frank Gore, and Alfred Morris to be specific), the dual threat capabilities of Martin propelled him to this spot. While the NFL becomes more and more pass happy it has become increasingly important for running backs to be able to catch passes out of the backfield, a skill that Martin excels at. He ranks 3rd among running backs in receiving yards with 224. The scary part is that, as I stated before, he is only a rookie and is continuing to get better as the season goes on. Over the last three games Martin has rushed for 296 yards while averaging 5.1 yards per carry, caught eight passes for 171 yards, and scored three total touchdowns. As Martin continues to improve he is going to command more respect and be universally recognized as one of the best running backs in the league.

4. Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks)


I must say that I am extremely impressed by what Marshawn Lynch has done (on the field) in Seattle to revitalize his career. After a couple of off the field issues with the Buffalo Bills, Lynch hoped to find a new beginning in Seattle. His first season with the team was less than stellar, racking up only 573 rushing yards in 12 games. I admittedly thought his career was over. Last season was a different story, however, as he ran for over 1,200 yards. This season he has continued to build on that success, as he currently finds himself ranked 5th in the league with 93.1 yards per game. While the numbers alone are impressive, what really makes him deserving of this ranking on my list is how he gets his yards. I'm not sure if Lynch is just mad at the world in general or what, but when he has the ball in his hands he runs angry. He refuses to go down willingly and fights through contact each time he is handed the ball, as he displayed in this famous run against the Saints in the playoffs two years ago (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKVEttPqvmE). He also is forced to do this without much consistent help from his quarterback, Russel Wilson. I have nothing against Wilson and believe he can be a good player, but he is still a rookie that is learning the game, which leads to inconsistent performances. This allows defenses to stack the box in an attempt to slow Lynch down, while daring Wilson to beat them with his arm. Lynch scraps and fights for each yard that he gets and is the man that drives the Seahawks' offense, making him a big part of the reason Seattle has four wins.

3. Arian Foster (Houston Texans)


Arian Foster is an absolute workhorse for the Houston Texans and is a huge part of the reason that they are first in the AFC with a record of 6-1. He leads the league with 24 carries per game, which is three more than the any other player in the league (Lynch is second with 21 carries per game). His work has resulted in him ranking 3rd in the league with 94.1 rushing yards per game.  His biggest contribution, however, comes from his ability to finish drives by getting into the end zone, as he leads all running backs with nine rushing touchdowns, four more than any other back in the league. While his 3.9 yards per carry is nothing to write home about, the key for him is that he rarely gets tackled for a loss. As soon as he gets the ball he finds a hole and runs straight through it for as many yards as he can get. Very seldom will you see him dancing around in the backfield or trying to run sideways or backwards to get around a guy. He simply takes what the defense gives him, which is an underrated facet of his game. Most importantly, he takes care of the football, recording no fumbles so far this season. By avoiding negative plays and gaining at least a couple yards on each run, Foster keeps the Texans offense moving and, more often than not, leads them to victory.

2. Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)

What can I say about Adrian Peterson? He just continues to prove people wrong again and again. Approximately ten months removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL, Peterson finds himself second in the league with 96.9 rushing yards per game. The scary part is that he isn't even 100% yet. Regardless, he remains one of the top running backs in the league because of his extremely versatile skill set and freakish athletic ability. Like Lynch, Peterson runs with a purpose and fights for every possible yard he can get, especially around the goal line. Unlike Lynch though, Peterson has blazing break away speed that makes him a threat to take it to the house on every play. Peterson leads all running backs with eight plays of 20+ yards. This game breaking ability makes defenses focus on him at all times, allowing fellow offensive players like quarterback Christian Ponder and wide receiver Percy Harvin to be more successful. As a fan I can't wait for Peterson to be back to 100% health because if he is this good when not at full strength, we are all in for a treat when he becomes completely healthy.

1. Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens)


Ray Rice is criminally under-utilized in the Baltimore Ravens offense. Under the direction of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron the Ravens have become a pass heavy offense, lead by quarterback Joe Flacco. While Flacco is certainly no scrub, he is currently sporting the 17th best QBR of 53.9, an extremely average rating. So the fact that Rice is currently on pace to have the lowest number of carries since his rookie year is absolutely mind boggling to me. Despite his egregious lack of touches, Rice has still found a way to be extremely productive this season. He is an enormous threat in both the ground game and the passing game, resulting in him ranking third among running backs in total yards per game. Since he doesn't get nearly enough touches, he does this by averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per catch. He also doesn't turn the ball over, as he has yet to fumble this season. When you watch this 5'8" (like we actually believe he's that tall) tank it is clear that he does not give a damn about his short stature. He will not hesitate to get in the face of a defender that is much taller than him, and more importantly, he doesn't fear anyone while he's running with the ball. With his low center of gravity and immense strength, he is almost impossible to bring down as he runs through defenders that are much bigger than him. This is a public service announcement to Cam Cameron. With the injuries that have plagued the defense this season, the offense will need to pick up the slack if the Ravens are going to contend for the Super Bowl. The only way to do that is to fully utilize the phenomenal talent of Ray Rice who has worked his way up to become the best running back in the NFL. You've been warned.






Monday, October 22, 2012

Tom Brady is Overrated


Let me start by saying that this is not an "I hate Tom Brady Article", nor will I try to make the claim that he is not a good quarterback. He's a darn good quarterback that can make all the throws and has experienced a great deal of success throughout his career. However, I feel the need to truly analyze his game because I feel that many people, both fans and in the media, are too hung up on the early success of his career and refuse to look at the product that is actually right in front of them. But that's okay, because that's what I'm here for.

I don't want to take anything away from Brady in terms of the success he has had. Winning three Super Bowl championships is certainly nothing to scoff at. However, it has been over seven years since his last championship and the "Golden Boy" has continued to come up short again and again and again. Brady's record in the playoffs since 2005 is 7-6 with an average passer rating of 87.7. While the numbers are not bad, they are certainly underwhelming for someone who is labeled by many as the most clutch quarterback of all time.

To put the numbers into perspective, during that time frame Ben Roethlisberger is 9-3 with an average passer rating of 86.5 and Eli Manning is 8-3 with an average passer rating of 90.9. Both of them also have won two Super Bowls during that span. Despite these numbers, you'd be hard pressed to find anybody who would claim that Eli or Roethlisberger is a better QB than Brady.

Clearly Brady is not the unstoppable force in the playoffs that everyone wants to believe that he is. But let's take it even further. Brady consistently puts up some of the best numbers in the NFL which keeps him in the conversation of top 2 QBs each and every year. I would argue though that his numbers can be rather deceiving and that he is the beneficiary of the Patriot system. To be frank, I hate Bill Belichick. But there is no denying that he is one of the greatest coaches of all time and a masterful offensive game-planner. 

For the best example I'm going to take a look at Brady's record breaking year in 2007. If you watched them play then you saw that a large portion of his throws were well designed screens, many of which went to Wes Welker, who would then scamper for a few more yards before being brought down. After running a bunch of short plays that would slowly but surely march them down the field, defenses were forced to play up closer to the line of scrimmage in hopes of slowing down those plays. This is when the Pats could unleash Randy Moss, sending him deep down the field against single coverage so Brady simply had to bomb it deep where more often than not, Moss would come up with it. Now I'm not trying to take away from the fact that Brady still needed to be able to make the throws and did so almost perfectly. I'm simply trying to point out a large chunk of the yards Brady had were results of short passes that his skill players then took for extra yards after the catch. In addition, he was able to do all this work behind what has consistently been the best offensive line in the entire NFL, which leads me to my next point.

In my opinion, the true measure of a quarterback is what he can do when everything breaks down. In other words, when the play doesn't go how it was scripted, what can that QB do to make a positive play. This is where Tom Brady's greatest weakness lies. If he is unable to get the ball out to a receiver quickly, or if his line doesn't give him the proper amount of time, he becomes a sub par quarterback. Obviously when a QB is under pressure he isn't going to perform as well, but time and time again I've seen Brady crumble and completely fall apart if he isn't able to sit in the pocket comfortably.

Last, but certainly not least, is probably the most crucial criticism I have of Tom Brady. I've already discussed how he has had his fair share of struggles in the playoffs when it matters the most, but how about during the regular season when he's trying to close out wins? Based on what you hear people say about Brady in the media you'd assume he's perfect at closing out games, seeing as he constantly receives the "clutch" label. If that's what you believe then you would be surprised to hear that since 2009, the Patriots have lost seven games after leading with under five minutes left to play. That's tied for the third most blown leads in the NFL during that time span. But of course you would then say that's not Brady's fault, it's because of the defense. Well, apparently not. In that time frame, through the sixth week of this season, he had a total QBR (quarterback rating) of 15 during the final five minutes of a game with a one possession lead. For a reference, a QBR of 50 is supposed to represent an average quarterback. Not only is this not clutch, it's downright awful.

Now that I've made my point I would just like to acknowledge that I am indeed nitpicking. Tom Brady has still had a great career and is likely to go down as one of the greatest to ever play the game. But I am tired of everyone putting him up on such a high pedestal that he frankly does not deserve. People seem to be stuck in the past and while it may feel like just yesterday that he won 3 out of 4 Super Bowls, it's been quite a long time. And even though he has had clutch moments in his career, he just might not be the unstoppable force with the game on the line that so many make him out to be.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Top 100 NBA Players

Here is my list of the top 100 players in the NBA. Unfortunately, I am not paid to analyze basketball so due to my busy college grind, I don't have the time to give an explanation for each individual player. So I encourage everybody to leave a comment at the bottom of this post. Whether you agree, disagree, or simply want to know why I ranked a player where I did, please feel free to comment!

  1. LeBron James
  2. Kevin Durant
  3. Chris Paul
  4. Dwight Howard
  5. Dwyane Wade
  6. Kobe Bryant
  7. Russell Westbrook
  8. Kevin Love
  9. Derrick Rose
  10. Dirk Nowitzki
  11. Rajon Rondo
  12. Carmelo Anthony
  13. Deron Williams
  14. Andrew Bynum
  15. Tony Parker
  16. Chris Bosh
  17. Pau Gasol
  18. Monta Ellis
  19. Eric Gordon
  20. LaMarcus Aldridge
  21. Josh Smith
  22. Rudy Gay
  23. Steve Nash
  24. Marc Gasol
  25. Al Jefferson
  26. David Lee
  27. James Harden
  28. Paul Pierce
  29. Blake Griffin
  30. Ty Lawson
  31. Kyrie Irving
  32. Manu Ginobili
  33. Andre Iguodala
  34. John Wall
  35. Greg Monroe
  36. Kevin Garnett
  37. Luol Deng
  38. Tyson Chandler
  39. Al Horford
  40. DeMarcus Cousins
  41. Tim Duncan
  42. Serge Ibaka
  43. Joe Johnson
  44. Roy Hibbert
  45. Tyreke Evans
  46. Mike Conley
  47. Zack Randolph
  48. Brandon Jennings
  49. Stephen Curry
  50. Gerald Wallace
  51. Amare Stoudemire
  52. Danny Granger
  53. Paul Milsap
  54. Marcin Gortat
  55. Goran Dragic
  56. Kenneth Faried
  57. Nene
  58. Marcus Thorton
  59. Danilo Gallinari
  60. Paul George
  61. Anderson Varejao
  62. Andrea Bargnani
  63. Ray Allen
  64. Nicolas Batum
  65. Kyle Lowry
  66. Avery Bradley
  67. Joakim Noah
  68. Jrue Holiday
  69. Wilson Chandler
  70. Michael Beasley
  71. Nikola Pekovic
  72. Ryan Anderson
  73. Carlos Boozer
  74. Thadeus Young
  75. Jarrett Jack
  76. Shawn Marion
  77. Brook Lopez
  78. Gordon Hayward
  79. Ricky Rubio
  80. David West
  81. Arron Afflalo
  82. Ersan Ilyasova
  83. JaVale McGee
  84. Kevin Martin
  85. Antawn Jamison
  86. Klay Thompson
  87. Lou Williams
  88. Jeremy Lin
  89. Luis Scola
  90. Jason Terry
  91. Kris Humphries
  92. Jose Calderon
  93. Rodney Stuckey
  94. Andrew Bogut
  95. Andrei Kirilenko
  96. DeMar DeRozan
  97. O.J. Mayo
  98. Tony Allen
  99. Jeff Green
  100. Mario Chalmers