Monday, October 29, 2012

NBA Season Preview

Tomorrow marks the glorious start of the 2012-2013 NBA Season. Let's take a look at some of my predictions for this season:

MVP: LeBron James



It's scary to think that LeBron James can get even better, but its true. I could go into all the things he does well but, I mean, what's the point? It's simple. James is the best player in the NBA. That's all there is to it. There's a reason he has already won this award three times. The part that's scary is that he is probably going to have his best statistical season of his career, in large part because he is going to be spending a lot of time at the "power forward" position. His scoring will be the same as always, aka however high he decides to make it. His assists will also stay on par. His rebounding is probably going to see a spike as he finds himself playing down low even more often than before, resulting in him averaging a career high of around nine rebounds per game. His efficiency is also going to increase as he continues to post up far more often and shoot threes at a much lower rate than his career average. On a side note I believe it's only fair to point out that LeBron made a career high 36.2% of his threes last year, proving that while it isn't the best part of his game, it's certainly more than serviceable. While it's tempting to pick someone else for this award like Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, or even Carmelo Anthony, we are about to witness an unstoppable force that hasn't been seen in the NBA for years.

2nd Place: Kevin Durant
3rd Place: Carmelo Anthony

Rookie Of the Year: Damian Lillard



In all honesty this award has already been decided. Barring a bad injury it will be given to Anthony Davis. But I believe that Damian Lillard will be more than deserving of this distinguished award and will actually steal some votes away from Davis. Back at Weber State he proved he can score from the point guard position, averaging 24.5 points per game during his senior year. What is underrated about his game is his playmaking ability because he was forced to play the role of primary scorer in college (I mean lets be real, he went to Weber State...If he didn't score who would?). While scoring is certainly his best asset and he'll never lead the league in assists, he is more than capable of getting his teammates involved and making people around him better. The thing that pushes him above Anthony Davis in my book is the fact that I see Lillard playing an integral role in getting Portland back into the playoffs, even if it is just as an 8th seed. While the Hornets have some young talent on the roster, it will not be enough to get them into the playoffs this season, especially considering the fact that their best player, Eric Gordon, can't seem to stay healthy.

2nd Place: Anthony Davis
3rd Place: Bradley Beal

Sixth Man of the Year: Kevin Martin



I was all prepared to write this segment about James Harden. He was by far the most talented player coming off the bench and had a role that he fit in quite well with the Oklahoma City Thunder. But then OKC had to go and be jerks and trade him away, creating even more work for me. So inconsiderate. Well, anyway, with Harden now with the Houston Rockets, and presumably in the starting lineup, I had to look through the NBA and see who would be the best player coming off the bench this season. Ironically, what I found is that this award has the great potential of going to an OKC player once again. For this to come to fruition, Kevin Martin will have to embrace the role of coming off the bench, and if he does, watch out. This role would be absolutely perfect for Martin because he will be asked to do one thing, and one thing only. Score. And this is what Martin does best. While defense has never been a strong suit for Martin, scoring has never been an issue as he has a career average of 18.4 points per game. Coming off the bench for OKC, he is going to be asked to provide a scoring punch and some instant offense for the team, something that he can do as well as anyone in the league.

2nd Place: Jason Terry
3rd Place: Ray Allen

Most Improved Player: Jrue Holiday



This is the hardest award for me to predict simply because there are so many candidates and it often goes to someone relatively unknown prior to his breakout season. But I'm going to take a stab at it by giving this award to Jrue Holiday. He has shown flashes of his immense potential but has yet to fully realize it. He actually even took a step back last year after a very good sophomore campaign. However the recent roster shake up in Philadelphia provides Holiday with the opportunity to finally show how good he can be, and I think he will. The key is the departure of Andre Iguodala, as well as Lou Williams. While both are very good players in their own way, I think they held Holiday back. Iggy is more of a point forward than small forward, so he spent a lot of the time handling the ball. This took away from Holiday's playmaking opportunities. Then there was sixth man point guard Williams who was always ready to come off the bench should Holiday make a mistake or play poorly. Without that pressure he will be able to play more freely and without worrying about his back up replacing him. Now, along with help from a dominant post presence in Andrew Bynum, I see Holiday increasing his assists, scoring, and efficiency, while also helping to lead the Sixers back to the playoffs, earning him this award.

2nd Place: Klay Thompson
3rd Place: Michael Beasley

Defensive Player of the Year: Josh Smith aka J-Smoove



Now that Joe Johnson is gone from the Atlanta Hawks this is undoubtedly Josh Smith's team. He is also entering a contract year, so we'll probably see him working his tail off to earn the big bucks on his next contract. He has always been a versatile defender whether it's blocking shots, getting steals, or simply shutting down multiple positions. His insane athletic ability allows him to do almost anything on the defensive end when he puts his mind to it. He has also continued to improve his rebounding, posting a career high 9.6 rebounds per game last season. This continued improvement, coupled with his desire to prove himself as a leader of a team, will result in his best season yet as a pro. This will be enough to earn him this distinguished honor. Other guys who have potential to get this award also have a little bit stacked against them giving J-Smoove the edge. LeBron is the most versatile defender in the league, but his defensive prowess will play a role in him winning the MVP. Dwight Howard is another guy who has a good shot at winning it, but he's fighting back issues making me hesitant to give him this award.

2nd Place: LeBron James
3rd Place: Dwight Howard

Coach of the Year: Frank Vogel



The Indiana Pacers have a group of talented players that play very well as a team, especially on the defensive end. What they lack, however, is a true star. A guy that, with the game on the line, they can turn to and say "make something happen". This is when coaching becomes even more important, and this is why I have Frank Vogel taking this award. He keeps his players playing for each other and for the team as a whole, rather than for themselves. When you add their balanced depth with the continued improvement of Roy Hibbert and Paul George, I have the Pacers finishing as the three seed in the East. A top three finish devoid of a star will be extremely impressive, resulting in Vogel being given this award.

2nd Place: George Karl
3rd Place: Mark Jackson

NBA Finals Prediction: Miami Heat over OKC Thunder



Real original, right? I'm predicting a finals rematch. Real clever. I'm even predicting the same outcome. Maybe I'm just getting lazy as this article comes to an end. Or maybe I'm a psychic and have looked into the future. Either way, this is my prediction. While the Eastern Conference has certainly been improving, there really isn't a team out there that can compete with them in a seven game series, especially with Derrick Rose possibly missing the whole year. I'm not saying it'll be easy, but with LeBron playing on a whole new level, D Wade making it to the playoffs healthy, and Bosh thriving at the Center position, there really isn't anyone in the East that can stop them. Now the Western Conference is a much more difficult thing to predict. While there is a plethora of good teams out in the West like the Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, and Clippers, none of them have a one-two punch like the Thunder. Yes, that includes the Lakers. They're a very good team, but they won't be able to handle the Thunder in a seven game series. Kendrick Perkins has historically been one of the few centers that can keep Dwight Howard in check. Also, Steve Nash will not be able to even remotely slow down Russell Westbrook. Once they get back to the Finals, however, that's where is ends. While the James Harden trade doesn't make the Thunder worse, it doesn't make them any better either. The Heat on the other hand have gotten even better than last year with the additions of sharp shooters like Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. This will result in Miami winning their second straight championship, and LeBron winning yet another Finals MVP, further cementing his position as best player in the league.

2 comments:

  1. My only gripe is your Frank Vogel prediction. Indiana was a surprise #3 seed last season and he didn't win it. Now that they have high expectations, getting the #3 seed again wouldn't be COY-worthy.

    If I were to predict the award, I would probably go with George Karl. If the Nuggets steal the division from the Thunder or even just finish in the Top 3 in the West, he will be a strong candidate. Others in the discussion: Spoelstra (if Heat win 63+), Popovich (if Spurs get #1 seed again), Mark Jackson (if Golden State make playoffs).

    As a side note, I am predicting a Heat-Spurs Finals (Heat in 4). I think the Spurs get the #1 seed and beat the tired winner of a 7-game LAL/OKC series in the WCF. Then, they get steamrolled by the Heat as LBJ returns the favor from 2007.

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  2. That's a very good point about Vogel. I actually felt that he deserved it last season but as you said, he didn't win it. My reasoning is that although the Pacers did get the third seed, it seemed that most people didn't really take them seriously as contenders. I think this year will be a different story, and while I have them finishing as the same seed, I believe they'll get far more respect league wide. However, I agree that George Karl would also be a good candidate. I just realized that I forgot to add my second and third place people for this category. I'll correct that now. Karl is my second, and I actually have Mark Jackson as third because I love what he's doing in Golden State. Either of those two would be perfect candidates. As for the Finals prediction, that would have been my second pick. I really like the Spurs and Popovich is probably the best coach in the league. The reason I don't have them getting by the Thunder is because of the constant injury issues that Manu Ginobili has. If he is healthy, however, and Kawhi Leonard breaks out, then it's more than plausible that the Spurs make the Finals. But I agree, regardless of who makes it out of the West, the Heat will win the Championship.

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