With the NBA Finals upon us it's time to take a look at the match-up that will determine this year's NBA Champion. This year we will see the San Antonio Spurs, arguably the best team of this century, attempt to win its fifth Championship since 1999. With Tim Duncan contemplating retirement at the age of 37, he hopes to be able to go out on top. In order to achieve this goal, they will have to dethrone The King and his reigning NBA Champion Miami Heat. The Heat struggled to get past the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals in an intense seven game series. The Spurs, on the other hand, swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals with relative ease. This is a very tough series to call so even now I'm having trouble deciding who I think is going to win. In order to clear this up I'm going to break down each match-up in order to figure out who has an advantage.
Mario Chalmers vs. Tony Parker: Advantage Spurs
This is a no brainer. Nothing against Chalmers, but Parker is hands down one of the best point guards in the NBA (if not the best). There really isn't much else to say here. As I'm sitting here trying to figure out what else to say on the topic nothing is coming to me. So I'm just going to type another line or two so at a glance it seems like I at least did some analysis. Almost there. Getting closer. Just want to get to the end of this line. Close enough.
Dwyane Wade vs. Danny Green: Advantage Heat
There is no doubt that Wade has been struggling this postseason, primarily due to the bone bruise in his knee that he is suffering through. While Green is a fine player, even a hampered D-Wade has the advantage in this match-up. However, if the Heat want to win this series Wade is going to need to do more than win this match-up. He has to play the way he did in Game 7 against the Pacers where he scored 21 points and grabbed 9 rebounds.
LeBron James vs. Kawhi Leonard: Advantage Heat...duh
This is not meant to be a slight on Leonard. I have the utmost respect for him as a player and believe that he is on the verge of bursting into stardom in the NBA. After a very good regular season he has stepped his game up even more during this postseason, especially in terms of rebounding and efficiency. He has averaged 8 rebounds per game through the first three rounds which will be crucial for him to continue in the Finals as rebounding is the biggest weakness of Miami. He has also been shooting 57% from the field, so when he gets an open shot you can bank on it going in. All that being said, there's a reason James is called The King. He is the best player in the NBA and while Leonard's tenacious defense may make things more difficult for James, he will find a way to dominate in his usual fashion.
Udonis Haslem vs. Tim Duncan: Advantage Spurs
My boy Timmy D is the best power forward of all time. Nuff' said.
Chris Bosh vs. Tiago Splitter: Advantage Heat
Now, I know it probably seems like it would have been better to do an analysis between the match-up of Bosh against Duncan and I was prepared to do that at first. But after thinking about it I realized that these will be the most likely match-ups in an attempt to allow Bosh and Duncan to focus more on the offensive end. While these two will surely be up against each other at some points, I see that being somewhat limited. That being said, Bosh has an obvious advantage. While Splitter is a fine defender, he is not nearly quick enough to deal with Bosh. A lot of people have been very quick to criticize Bosh, and deservedly so, as he had an awful series against the Pacers. Many people expect his struggles to continue in this series, giving the Spurs a big advantage. Personally, I think we are going to see the Bosh of old in this series. Indiana has been his kryptonite all year. In three regular season match-ups he totaled only 10 rebounds against the Pacers, so his lack of rebounding wasn't much of a surprise to me. Also, his scoring troubles stemmed from the fact that his weakness is dealing with bigger and stronger defenders. Roy Hibbert and David West were both able to beat up Bosh and take him out of his comfort zone. No disrespect to Duncan or Splitter, but neither of them has a distinct size advantage which will allow Bosh to do his normal damage on offense as well as on the boards.
Bench Players: Advantage Heat
Quite frankly, neither of these benches have been playing particularly well this postseason. That being said I'm giving the edge to the Heat because they have more players that tend to step up albeit not always at the same time. One game Shane Battier may step up, next Ray Allen will be big, then Norris Cole will knock down some corner threes. Then there's Chris "Birdman" Anderson who is always ready to come in and give the team some energy and defense. The Spurs, on the other hand, rely heavily on just one guy off the bench, Manu Ginobili. When he struggles the bench tends to struggle and this postseason has been a pretty rough one for him. He is shooting only 38% from the field and if he can't get that up at least into the low 40s then the starters for the Spurs are going to have to continue to carry most of the load offensively.
Coach: Advantage Spurs
I believe that Erik Spoelstra gets a tough rap from NBA fans. He has the best player in the NBA on his team so when the team wins he gets very little credit, but when they lose people start calling for him to lose his job. I personally think that he's a very good coach and is underrated in terms of making adjustments not only in between playoff games but even at half time as well. However, I formed my opinion of him before the Big 3 formed in Miami, aka before anyone else started to actually watch the Heat. Despite having an absolutely horrible roster outside of Wade, he led the team to the playoffs both his seasons before the arrival of James and Bosh. All that being said, there isn't a better coach in the NBA than Gregg Popovich. Everyone knows about all the wins and all the championships, but my high opinion of him stems from how great he is at utilizing players to maximize their abilities. I see this series being somewhat of a chess match and if you're the Spurs, there's no one you'd rather have moving the pieces.
This is a very tough choice. Whichever way it goes I see this being a very tight series. I've seen a lot of people picking the Spurs in seven games but I have one issue with that. Frankly, I just don't see the Heat losing a game seven at home with a championship on the line. The Heat simply has another gear that they can access at times that no other team in the NBA can replicate. When they're on, they're ON. With their health in question it will certainly be difficult, but I think that when push comes to shove Miami's big three are going to step up. The Heat are going to spread the Spurs out on defense by hitting the outside shot with more consistency which will open up driving lanes for Wade and James. Quite simply, I think LeBron is going to find a way to will his team to victory. It may be overly simplistic but it's gotten me this far and I'm not going to abandon my preseason pick now. King James will be crowned for the second year in a row as he moves closer to cementing his legacy as an all-time great.
Finals MVP: LeBron James
This is pretty obvious. If the Miami Heat win it's going to be on the shoulders of LeBron James. He is the best player in the world and continues to get better and better. As if it wasn't scary enough for Spurs fans to have to face him, add the fact that he is undoubtedly seeking revenge. In James' first finals appearance he was swept by the Spurs at the age of 22. Neither he nor his team were ready for a challenge of that magnitude back in 2007, but that doesn't make the sting any less harsh. Be prepared to see LeBron on a warpath in this series as he exacts revenge on the team that took away his first chance for a championship ring.
