Eastern Conference Finals Preview

The Eastern Conference Finals features the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics, two teams that were pushed to the brink in their respective semi-final series. After losing Chris Bosh to injury in game one against the Pacers, the Heat lost two games in a row and found themselves down 1-2. With their backs against the wall Dwyane Wade and Lebron James took over the series to win three straight games, defeating the Pacers in six games. The Celtics, on the other hand, were pushed to seven games against the eighth seeded 76ers. It wasn't until some unusually impressive shooting by Rajon Rondo in the waning minutes of game seven that the Celtics clinched a win. With those series finished, it is time to take a look at the upcoming match-up:

Celtics X-Factor: Ray Allen

To say that Ray Allen has been struggling during this post-season is a gross understatement. You know the man is in a slump (40.8FG%, 26.9 3P%) when he gets visibly excited about making a three-pointer at a relatively unimportant juncture in the game, keeping in mind he has made more threes than anyone in NBA history. Father Time has finally caught up to Allen at the worst possible time for the Celtics, as they try to make one last push for a championship before the members of the Big 3 probably go their separate ways. His ankles have been an issue and he has played through the pain admirably, but given his less than proficient defense, if he is not knocking down the three then he becomes a liability on the court. Without his normal three point shooting then I don't believe the Celtics have a chance in this series. However, if Allen can get it going from beyond the arc things will go much smoother for Boston offensively.

Heat X-Factor: Udonis Haslem

In all honesty the biggest X-Factor for Miami is when and if Chris Bosh will be able to play. But since that would be pure speculation on my part, I will focus on Udonis Haslem, who has had a mostly disappointing season to this point. He has stepped up his game in the playoffs, however, increasing his field goal percentage by 4%.Until Bosh is able to come back Haslem's ability to knock down the mid-range jumper will be a key for Miami's success. As Wade and James cut and slash to the basket opposing teams crowd the paint, often leaving Haslem wide open. If he does not consistently hit that shot it will make it supremely difficult for Wade and James to finish at the rim. When this happens the Heat often become very stagnant on offense, relying on too much isolation and long jumpers. So the way Haslem plays and makes shots will heavily determine the outcome of this series.

Key Match-up: Kevin Garnett vs. Joel Anthony

Let me start out by saying we all know who is going to win this match-up. Kevin Garnett will get his points and rebounds, and will outplay Joel Anthony in pretty much every statistical category. However, the defensive performance of Anthony will be a key factor in determining who moves on to the NBA Finals. With Allen struggling, Garnett's offensive production has been even more important during this postseason. There is almost a direct link between his efficiency and whether or not the Celtics win. In their eight wins during the playoffs Garnett is averaging 21.3 ppg while shooting 53.5% from the field. In their five losses, he scores only 16 ppg on 45.3% shooting from the field. Anthony will be given the task of trying to slow him down and if he is successful Miami will be in a good position to win. But if not, the Celtics could be moving on to the Finals.

Prediction: Miami Heat in 5 games
The Boston Celtics were pushed to seven games by the younger, more athletic 76ers. The Miami Heat are essentially a better version of the 76ers, seeing as they to love to run in transition, but have two elite scorers in the half-court set. Although I believe the games will be very competitive, I only see the Celtics stealing one game at home in this series. Without Avery Bradley in the line-up it will be primarily up to Ray Allen to guard Dwyane Wade. While Bradley would not have been able to completely stop Wade, he is an elite defender and could have made things much more difficult for Miami's star shooting guard. At the age of 36 Allen's defense is far from elite, which leads me to believe that Wade will continue his prolific scoring to help lead the Heat to victory. It is also worth noting that the primary weakness of Miami is size down low and rebounding, which the Pacers took advantage of in their two wins during the last series. However, Boston lacks the size to exploit this weakness and will therefore be sent home short of reaching their goal of an NBA championship.

Bosh's Injury Will Cause Problems in Miami

As a fan of the Miami Heat my heart absolutely sank when I saw Chris Bosh doubled over in pain on the court yesterday during game one of their series against the Pacers. At this point we do not know the extent of the injury, but he has an abdominal strain that could very well keep him on the bench the remainder of the playoffs. The cause of my sadness is not what you would think, however. The root of my discontent comes from what I perceive as the only two possible outcomes that I see, if Bosh does in fact miss the rest of the postseason.

The first, and honestly preferable outcome, is that the Heat go on to win the Championship. In order for this to happen LeBron and Wade will have to step up their games, or as I like to say, go into beast mode. Obviously it will take more than two guys to win a championship though. The man that will need to step in for Bosh to make an impact is Udonis Haslem, who, up to this point, has had a rather sub par season, shooting only 42% from the field. Now as a Heat fan, this is the ultimate goal, and I would love nothing more than for them to win a Championship. However, it will unfortunately be bitter sweet. If they do go on to win it all without Bosh we will all be subjected to even more talk that completely belittles his role on the team. Many people already claim that Bosh is overrated and that the Heat only have a "Big 2". This is far from the truth and anyone who watches the Heat regularly know this, but thanks to mass media the casual NBA fan thinks Bosh is an expendable member of the team. A Bosh-less Championship would only strengthen the resolve of these people and all of us will have to spend the off-season hearing how Bosh is all hype and should just be traded away.

The second outcome is obviously that the Heat once again fail to win a Championship, which would give Heat "haters" a field day. LeBron James has been nothing short of spectacular this season but given the pressure, that he frankly put on himself ("Not one, not two, not three...), the only thing that matters is whether or not he wins a championship. This criticism is fair, because if you're going to talk that big then you need to back it up. However, I am quite honestly sick of hearing about it on a daily basis on ESPN. I understand that injuries are a part of the game that every team has to deal with, but losing Bosh really is a huge blow. More important than his 18 points and 8 rebounds per game, is the fact that on any given night when James or Wade is struggling, he has the ability to step up and be the guy, as he demonstrated throughout this season. The biggest problem I will have if this happens is that even if LeBron plays out of his mind we will still only hear about how he cannot win big games. He could average a triple-double for the finals, finish every game strong, yet he will still be blamed if the Heat come up short.

As I've already stated, I clearly want the Heat to bring home the Championship this year. I would also like to add that I hope Bosh's injury isn't serious and that he does come back and play an integral role on a Championship team. However, if that does not happen, then one way or another we can expect another off-season of controversy in South Beach.