The Eastern Conference Finals features the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics, two teams that were pushed to the brink in their respective semi-final series. After losing Chris Bosh to injury in game one against the Pacers, the Heat lost two games in a row and found themselves down 1-2. With their backs against the wall Dwyane Wade and Lebron James took over the series to win three straight games, defeating the Pacers in six games. The Celtics, on the other hand, were pushed to seven games against the eighth seeded 76ers. It wasn't until some unusually impressive shooting by Rajon Rondo in the waning minutes of game seven that the Celtics clinched a win. With those series finished, it is time to take a look at the upcoming match-up:
Celtics X-Factor: Ray Allen
To say that Ray Allen has been struggling during this post-season is a gross understatement. You know the man is in a slump (40.8FG%, 26.9 3P%) when he gets visibly excited about making a three-pointer at a relatively unimportant juncture in the game, keeping in mind he has made more threes than anyone in NBA history. Father Time has finally caught up to Allen at the worst possible time for the Celtics, as they try to make one last push for a championship before the members of the Big 3 probably go their separate ways. His ankles have been an issue and he has played through the pain admirably, but given his less than proficient defense, if he is not knocking down the three then he becomes a liability on the court. Without his normal three point shooting then I don't believe the Celtics have a chance in this series. However, if Allen can get it going from beyond the arc things will go much smoother for Boston offensively.
Heat X-Factor: Udonis Haslem
In all honesty the biggest X-Factor for Miami is when and if Chris Bosh will be able to play. But since that would be pure speculation on my part, I will focus on Udonis Haslem, who has had a mostly disappointing season to this point. He has stepped up his game in the playoffs, however, increasing his field goal percentage by 4%.Until Bosh is able to come back Haslem's ability to knock down the mid-range jumper will be a key for Miami's success. As Wade and James cut and slash to the basket opposing teams crowd the paint, often leaving Haslem wide open. If he does not consistently hit that shot it will make it supremely difficult for Wade and James to finish at the rim. When this happens the Heat often become very stagnant on offense, relying on too much isolation and long jumpers. So the way Haslem plays and makes shots will heavily determine the outcome of this series.
Key Match-up: Kevin Garnett vs. Joel Anthony
Let me start out by saying we all know who is going to win this match-up. Kevin Garnett will get his points and rebounds, and will outplay Joel Anthony in pretty much every statistical category. However, the defensive performance of Anthony will be a key factor in determining who moves on to the NBA Finals. With Allen struggling, Garnett's offensive production has been even more important during this postseason. There is almost a direct link between his efficiency and whether or not the Celtics win. In their eight wins during the playoffs Garnett is averaging 21.3 ppg while shooting 53.5% from the field. In their five losses, he scores only 16 ppg on 45.3% shooting from the field. Anthony will be given the task of trying to slow him down and if he is successful Miami will be in a good position to win. But if not, the Celtics could be moving on to the Finals.
Prediction: Miami Heat in 5 games
The Boston Celtics were pushed to seven games by the younger, more athletic 76ers. The Miami Heat are essentially a better version of the 76ers, seeing as they to love to run in transition, but have two elite scorers in the half-court set. Although I believe the games will be very competitive, I only see the Celtics stealing one game at home in this series. Without Avery Bradley in the line-up it will be primarily up to Ray Allen to guard Dwyane Wade. While Bradley would not have been able to completely stop Wade, he is an elite defender and could have made things much more difficult for Miami's star shooting guard. At the age of 36 Allen's defense is far from elite, which leads me to believe that Wade will continue his prolific scoring to help lead the Heat to victory. It is also worth noting that the primary weakness of Miami is size down low and rebounding, which the Pacers took advantage of in their two wins during the last series. However, Boston lacks the size to exploit this weakness and will therefore be sent home short of reaching their goal of an NBA championship.
First off, Haslem and Pittman are nothing more than thugs who should have been suspended for the rest of the playoffs for that shit they pulled.
ReplyDeleteSecond, I think the Heat's size deficiency will be exploited more than you think. Garnett is not exactly young, true, but he by himself will be a game changer against the bosh-less, and therefore, rather paltry, frontline of the Heat. It is telling of the Heat's lack of a front line that Dwyane Wade led the team in blocks and Lebron likewise in rebounds.
Plus, Brandon Bass was not consistent in the Sixers series, but he showed flashes and he could give the Heat trouble.
Also, I don't see how Ray Allen could possibly not get his shot in order, it doesn't take youth to catch and shoot, and he'll no doubt figure it out and give the Heat a lot of trouble.
I also wonder about the Heat's supporting cast. Sure, Mario Chalmers scored 25 points in Game 3, but he followed that up with 16 combined points in Games 4 and 5. Who else is there? Haslem? Mike Miller? Norris Cole? Without Bosh, nobody on the Heat roster besides James and Wade scare the Celtics.
Finally, even without Avery Bradley, the Celtics still have Keyon Dooling, who is a good defender to take his place. Watching the Sixers' series, he gave Holiday some trouble with his on ball defense.
Prediction: Heat in 7
Pittman, I agree, Haslem....Eh....I don't like it, but I don't think that deserved a severe suspension. One game seemed fitting. And I agree with you about Garnett. I never mentioned anything with his age. I acknowledged that the most important match up was him against Anthony, but really anybody guarding him. He should have a great series. But outside of Garnett they have no size. Bass is a very solid player but is undersized for the four spot which allows him to be guarded by guys like Battier. As for Ray Allen, I'm sorry if I wasn't clear, because when I referenced Father Time I wasn't saying he is struggling because he is old, I meant that he is struggling because he can't keep his ankles healthy. And that is what is causing his shot to be so poor. He may finally figure it out, but I'm not sure, which is why I listed him as their X-Factor. As for the supporting cast of the Heat, no individual is scary, but between the all the guys you mentioned, plus Battier, usually at least two of them are having a good game. However, they've proved to be inconsistent this entire season, so they need to keep it up for them to win. I could have gone way more in depth about the role players for the Heat but tried to keep the article relatively short. Lastly, I do respect Dooling and he is a very pestering defender, but he doesn't have the size to check Wade, who has 25 pounds on him. And no disrespect to Holiday because I'm a fan, but he has a ways to go before he is near Wade's level. But I like you're prediction, and frankly I would like a nice competitive seven game series. You raise some very good points and like I said in the article if Ray Allen can get out of his slump like you think he will then he can definitely cause havoc for the Heat.
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