I am going to get this out of the way for those of you who are simply reading this to find out my prediction: Miami Heat in 7 games. Now let the angry comments explaining why I am a biased fool commence. But for those of you patient enough to stay with me for a few minutes just hear me out. From the start of this abbreviated NBA season I have predicted a Finals match-up between the Miami Heat and OKC Thunder; however, I never imagined that OKC would make this decision so difficult. I have gone back and forth so many times that I wouldn't be surprised if later in this article I decide to go with the Thunder in 6 games, so be sure to pay close attention should you decide to continue reading.
This is such a difficult match-up to call that I even had trouble deciding how to go about writing this article. At first I thought I could do a position by position match-up analysis, discussing which team holds the advantage at each position. After playing that scenario through my head I realized that it would be a completely moot point. When analyzing on-the-court talent it is a complete wash between these two teams. OKC is certainly the more complete team, but the Heat have arguably 3 of the top 4 players in the series. With that in mind I am going to use this article to discuss the one thing that the Heat have that the Thunder lack: a true chip on their shoulder.
Let's just be honest for a moment. The Heat have absolutely everything to lose, where as the Thunder have nothing to lose. OKC has essentially been deemed the "golden child" of the NBA. They are a team that was built "the right way", and has possibly the most likable and humble of all superstars in the NBA, Kevin Durant. This is in no way a bad thing, however, historically it is the teams that have a chip on their shoulder that generally win championships. Last year, the Mavericks were essentially ruled out in the first round against Portland, and Dirk Nowitzki was labeled as soft and horrible in the clutch. After being disrespected time and time again, Dirk and his teammates shed their labels and went on to win the Championship.
The Lakers won the two prior Championships behind the leadership of Kobe Bryant, who as we all know, plays with a chip on his shoulder even if it's something he needs to fabricate himself. I could go on and on, but my point is, the Thunder just don't really have anything to be angry about. They're one of the most popular teams in the league and have not yet had to experience the feeling of making it to the Finals and then losing. This is not the case for the Miami Heat.
After the infamous "Decision" by LeBron James, in which he took his talents to South Beach, the Heat have become the most hated team in the NBA, lead by the most hated and scrutinized superstar, LeBron James. In all honesty, the intense hatred that is directed at LeBron (which I am reminded of all the time due to the fact that I'm a Heat fan and my friends all know that) makes me sometimes think that he's been caught stealing purses from old ladies. I wouldn't be surprised if a national poll revealed that LeBron is more hated than O.J. Simpson. To compound his problems, the Heat made it to the Finals where he seemingly froze, resulting in a devastating loss. If he fails to win a ring once again, he will face yet another year of critics discussing his shortcomings on what seems like a daily basis, and he knows it.
LeBron isn't the only member of the Heat with something to prove. That loss in the finals affected everyone on that team. The normally cordial and friendly Dwyane Wade came at this NBA season with a vengeance, sporting a mean scowl and the attitude to match it. Essentially, losing is not an option for this team. Their window for success is closing, where as the Thunder know they have plenty of chances to win Championships for years to come. Out of that desperation, I believe the Heat will pull together to overcome their demons and become NBA Champions.
And just as an add-on so I can feel like I did some form of basketball analysis, the Thunder are primarily a jump shooting team, making about 50% of those jump shots in their wins against the Spurs. The Heat are very good at closing out, making jump shots more difficult, leading me to believe the Thunder won't be able to score enough to win four games.
The Thunder proved against the Spurs that they can change their game plan on the fly to defeat adversity. The Spurs are much better team defense than the Heat and the Thunder beat them. Also, who is going to cover Westbrook and Harden, because Wade can only cover one of them and if you put Battier on either one they will blow right by him. The Thunder also have Perkins, Collison, and Mohammed that they can put in the game to foul Miami when they drive. If by some chance they all foul out that is 18 free throws, and Miami is not a very good free throw shooting team or half-court team. I give the advantage to the Thunder in 6.
ReplyDelete18 fouls resulting in 36 free throws** My mistake
ReplyDeleteActually, the Spurs are not a much better defensive team than the Heat. In fact, the Heat have much much better team defense. This year the Spurs were 16th in ppg allowed and 17th opponents field goal percentage. Miami was 4th and 5th respectively in those categories. Everyone is just used to assuming the Spurs have great defense because that's how they won their three championships. But this year's team was an offensive team, finishing 2nd in the league in scoring. As for Westbrook and Harden, Chalmers is an underrated defender that can pester Westbrook. That will by no means stop Westbrook, but when he drives past (often out of control), Miami's help defense is superb. Then, obviously Wade will check Harden, and LeBron will split time between basically everyone. If Westbrook gets hot you'll see LeBron guard him while Battier defends Durant. Battier is still a very good defender despite his age. I'm not quite sure why you're underestimating Miami's defense, which has proven to be very good as it keeps them in games when they go through their inexplicable scoring droughts. And yes the Thunder have size to protect the rim and Miami has been struggling at the free throw line, so that will be an issue. But as I stated you often find Harden, Westbrook, and Durant pulling up for jumpers. Although they are very good at making them, the Heat are great at swarming the ball and forcing contested jump shots. So i simply don't think the Thunder will be able to hit them at a high enough rate in 4 out of 7 games. That being said I am in no way burying the Thunder and would not be surprised at all if your prediction comes true.
ReplyDeleteI respect that you are not one of those writers that thinks their own opinion is right and everyone else is wrong, so much respect there. This postseason Westbrook has evolved a lot as a play-maker and better decision maker, so that gives the Thunder two play-makers in Harden and Westbrook plus the scoring champ in Durant. The Heat are very good at closing out to contest shots but I do not think that will have any effect on Durant seeing as how he is 6'10 with a wingspan of 7'4 and can shoot over basically anyone. Also, if the Heat close out to soon on someone like Harden or Westbrook they will most likely blow right by the defender to the rim.
ReplyDeleteIbaka also poses the same threat as Bosh in pulling big men out of the lane to give clear driving lanes for Westbrook, Harden, and Durant.
Personally the only one who I believe can cover Durant effectively is Lebron and vice versa. As for Chalmers, he may be an underrated defender but I think Westbrook's athleticism will be overwhelming. Westbrook and D-Rose are very similar in their playing type and athleticism and when the Heat and Bulls play, Lebron is forced to match up with him and that is okay then because the Bulls have no other reliable scoring threat where the Thunder have 2 others, Durant and Harden.
Regardless this series will be the best Finals match up we have seen in our lifetime and hopefully results in a new rivalry. That being said, I would also not be surprised if your prediction came true, but as a Thunder fan I have to hope for the best.
First off thank you for the praise. It is much appreciated, as I do my best to make sure I acknowledge that everything I say is simply an opinion. And I agree about Westbrook. I'm a huge Westbrook fan, and I don't know if you've read any of my other posts but I even wrote that I thought he was the second best point guard this season. That being said, I've watched a lot of him over the past three years and he still has a tendency to become frustrated with tenacious defense and then shoots too many hard shots, which could hurt the Thunder. But as I said in the article, on basketball analysis alone I couldn't make a decision. So the thing I have separating the two teams is the pure desperation of the Heat.
ReplyDeleteI understand you're support for your team and holding out hope. I will even admit that it's quite possible that if I wasn't a Heat fan I'd have written an entirely different article. I would like to thank you again for your support and hope you continue following my posts.