#1 Miami Heat vs. #3 Indiana Pacers
In a rematch from last years playoffs, the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers meet up with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. If this series is anything like last year's, we're all in for a treat. While the Heat are undoubtedly the best team in the NBA, the Pacers have always given them trouble and even won two of the three meetings this season. With a size advantage at almost every position the Pacers will provide a great challenge to Miami. Will that be enough to dethrone the reigning champs? Let's take a look.
Key Matchup: George Hill vs. Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole
George Hill is not a true point guard, but in order to best serve the needs of the Pacers that is the position he plays. While he doesn't exactly rack up the assists on a game by game basis, he acts as the stabilizing force that gets the team into their offensive sets efficiently. This means his impact on the game goes far beyond what you see on the stat sheet. The perfect example was his absence from game five of the series against the Knicks due to a concussion. With a chance to end the series then and there, the Pacers found themselves down by a few points in the waning minutes of the game. Without Hill they struggled to get the ball up the court and get set in their offense, leading to a handful of game changing turnovers. They finished that game with a total of 19 turnovers, noticeably higher than their season average of 14.5 per game. The key to disrupting the Pacers offense is to give Hill a hard time and make it difficult for him to get the offense started. This task will be appointed to the combination of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole. If they can succeed then it will be extremely difficult for the Pacers to score enough points to beat the Heat, especially since Miami thrives in transition. Be sure to keep an eye on this match-up.
Heat X-Factor: Dwyane Wade
Dwyane Wade is my absolute favorite player, which is why it saddens me to be referring to him as an X-factor. It used to be that you always knew what you were going to get from Wade each time he stepped on the court. However, due to him dealing with a knee injury, we really don't know what version of him we're going to see. The pain he is feeling in his knee makes it very difficult for him to jump or even plant and push off that leg. This has resulted in him being far less aggressive than he usually is. In the series against the Bulls he took only 11 shots per game, compared to the 16 per game he shot during the regular season. Even more telling his lack of free throw attempts during the series against Chicago. In five games he only attempted six free throws. This is the same man that has averaged almost nine foul shots per game over his entire career. This is a direct result of his less aggressive style of play. If they can keep his knee pain under control and allow him to play a more aggressive game then he gives the Heat a much better chance of winning. Sadly, even if the pain is mitigated we probably won't be seeing him make any plays like this. And just cause I love watching this highlight from back in 2009, here ya go.
Pacers X-Factor: Roy Hibbert
Roy Hibbert is one of the most inconsistent and frustrating players in the NBA. He's frustrating because he has so much potential to be one of the best centers in the league. The 26 year old stands at a legitimate 7'2" yet only tallied 8.3 rebounds per game this season and shot only 45% from the field (24th among NBA centers). Despite some of his offensive struggles he has solidified himself as one of the best defensive centers in the game, averaging 2.6 blocks per game this season. His inconsistencies on the offensive end are what makes him the X-factor for the Pacers in this series. The only true weakness of the Heat is their lack of size in the interior. While the mid-season addition of Birdman helped to mitigate that problem to a certain extent, even he doesn't have the size to take on Hibbert alone. Keeping this in mind, for the Pacers to win this series it is essential for him to assert his dominance on the offensive end. Inconsistency like he displayed against the Knicks just won't cut it in this series. While he had a good series overall he had a few games where he just didn't show up offensively. His point total for each game was 14, 6, 24, 6, 9, 21. If he can play like he did in games 1, 3, and 6 of that series then he will put Indiana in a good place to win. However, if his performance matches is output from games 2, 4, and 5 the Heat will win this series with ease.
Prediction: Miami in six
Why yes, that is a picture from the Miami Heat doing the Harlem Shake. In case you haven't seen the video, here it is. Anyway, despite the tough match-up for Miami I still believe that they will prevail in this series. The difference maker is that in a close game, Miami has multiple options to go to including King James himself, the most clutch player in the NBA. Yes, you read that correctly. The MOST CLUTCH player in the NBA. Although Indiana has a lot of young talent and Paul George is an emerging star, they do not have that reliable guy to go to at the end of the game when they need a basket. I see this being a relatively low scoring series that is filled with close games which makes late game execution even more crucial. In addition, Indiana is going to struggle to defend Miami when they go small and put LeBron at power forward and Chris Bosh at center. This will spread out the defense and force David West and Hibbert to defend much farther out then they're accustomed. While the Pacers will be able to steal one or two games from the Heat on pure size and physicality, the talent of Miami and King James will lead them to the NBA Finals.
Key Matchup: George Hill vs. Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole
Heat X-Factor: Dwyane Wade
Dwyane Wade is my absolute favorite player, which is why it saddens me to be referring to him as an X-factor. It used to be that you always knew what you were going to get from Wade each time he stepped on the court. However, due to him dealing with a knee injury, we really don't know what version of him we're going to see. The pain he is feeling in his knee makes it very difficult for him to jump or even plant and push off that leg. This has resulted in him being far less aggressive than he usually is. In the series against the Bulls he took only 11 shots per game, compared to the 16 per game he shot during the regular season. Even more telling his lack of free throw attempts during the series against Chicago. In five games he only attempted six free throws. This is the same man that has averaged almost nine foul shots per game over his entire career. This is a direct result of his less aggressive style of play. If they can keep his knee pain under control and allow him to play a more aggressive game then he gives the Heat a much better chance of winning. Sadly, even if the pain is mitigated we probably won't be seeing him make any plays like this. And just cause I love watching this highlight from back in 2009, here ya go.
Pacers X-Factor: Roy Hibbert
Prediction: Miami in six
Why yes, that is a picture from the Miami Heat doing the Harlem Shake. In case you haven't seen the video, here it is. Anyway, despite the tough match-up for Miami I still believe that they will prevail in this series. The difference maker is that in a close game, Miami has multiple options to go to including King James himself, the most clutch player in the NBA. Yes, you read that correctly. The MOST CLUTCH player in the NBA. Although Indiana has a lot of young talent and Paul George is an emerging star, they do not have that reliable guy to go to at the end of the game when they need a basket. I see this being a relatively low scoring series that is filled with close games which makes late game execution even more crucial. In addition, Indiana is going to struggle to defend Miami when they go small and put LeBron at power forward and Chris Bosh at center. This will spread out the defense and force David West and Hibbert to defend much farther out then they're accustomed. While the Pacers will be able to steal one or two games from the Heat on pure size and physicality, the talent of Miami and King James will lead them to the NBA Finals.
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