Alex Smith the Answer for the Chiefs?

(http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/49ers-QB-Smith-on-IR-likely-ending-his-tenure-3195411.php)

Let's just be honest for a minute, Alex Smith got hosed this season. After having easily the best year of his career, Smith had to sit out a game due to a concussion. The unwritten rule is that a player shouldn't be able to lose his job because of an injury. Unfortunately, that is not the reality. Colin Kaepernick came in and played at a very high level, causing Jim Harbaugh to name him the starter for the remainder of the season as the team made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Smith obviously has no desire to be a backup so he wanted to get out of San Francisco. As a result the 49ers traded him to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Now a moment of silence for the death of Smith's Super Bowl dreams.

But seriously, now that the trade has happened it's time to determine whether or not we think this move will make the lowly Chiefs a serious playoff contender. In order to make this determination, let's first take a look at what it takes for Smith to be successful.

It's fair to say that Smith was a sub par quarterback until the past two seasons. The biggest reason for his more recent success is that he was no longer asked to carry a team. His job over the past two years has been to be a game manager that doesn't make many mistakes, while the team is carried by a strong defense and potent running game. San Francisco ranked 2nd in scoring defense each of the past two years, while concurrently ranking in the top 8 in rushing. With less responsibility on him, Smith was able to flourish and finish 7th in total QBR last year.

Now let's take a look at the Chiefs and see if the circumstances are similar enough for Smith to continue his success. The defense in Kansas City is...how do I say this nicely...dreadful. Last season they ranked 25th in scoring defense which clearly leaves a lot to be desired on that side of the ball. The rushing attack is a completely different story. Led by Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs had the fifth ranked rushing attack in the league last season. So although the defense certainly needs improvement, with the help of a strong rushing game it would appear that Smith does have an opportunity to continue his high level of play.

Before we make a final determination we must also take a look at another person new in Kansas City, the coach Andy Reid. Reid is notorious for being a pass happy play caller that under-utilizes talented running backs. Despite having LeSean McCoy with the Eagles, Reid chose to run a pass heavy offense regardless of who was lined up under center. Michael Vick and Nick Foles both played games for the Eagles last season and both of them threw the ball 38 times per game. On the other hand, Smith was only asked to throw the ball 26 times per game.

As I stated before, Smith is a better quarterback when he doesn't have to do too much. Historically, Reid asks a lot of his QBs and refuses to make adjustments based on his team's personnel. With that being the case, I just don't see Smith having a whole lot of success with the Chiefs. There is definitely a lot of potential here, but if Reid is unwilling to alter his philosophy, I don't see Smith being any better than a mediocre quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs.